1 00:00:00,610 --> 00:00:09,529 People should not be afraid of their governments. Government should be 2 00:00:09,550 --> 00:00:19,000 afraid of their people. The American populace is facing an unconditional warfare scenario. 3 00:00:19,000 --> 00:00:26,170 This is a challenging time for all Americans. We're enduring a great national 4 00:00:26,170 --> 00:00:32,759 trial, and we will prove that we can meet the moment we can. What sort of a 5 00:00:32,759 --> 00:00:43,420 financial deal should Obama be seeking 6 00:00:44,189 --> 00:00:54,500 to strike when he travels to China next month 7 00:00:54,500 --> 00:01:01,179 ? I think this would be the time because you really need to bring China into the creati... 8 00:01:01,350 --> 00:01:08,859 a new world order, financial world order. They are kind 9 00:01:08,859 --> 00:01:15,689 of reluctant members of the IMF. They play along, but they don't make 10 00:01:15,689 --> 00:01:22,400 much of a contribution because it's not their, their institution 11 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:29,219 , their share is not commensurate. Their voting rights are not commens 12 00:01:29,219 --> 00:01:36,019 urate to their weight. So I think you need a new word order 13 00:01:36,019 --> 00:01:43,549 that China has to be part of the process of creating it, and they have to buy in. 14 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:50,209 They have to own it the same way as, let's say, United States owns the Washington 15 00:01:50,209 --> 00:01:57,319 consensus, the current order. And I think this would be a more stable 16 00:01:57,340 --> 00:02:04,079 one where you would have a coordinated policies. I think the 17 00:02:04,079 --> 00:02:10,949 makings of it are already there. And what about the American concern that aiding 18 00:02:10,949 --> 00:02:18,039 and embedding this move away from the dollar as the world's reserve currency ultimately... 19 00:02:18,039 --> 00:02:24,719 S. economy? It is not necessarily in our interest to have the 20 00:02:24,719 --> 00:02:32,069 dollar as the sole world currency because as the world economy grows 21 00:02:32,069 --> 00:02:40,430 , it needs additional currency. If the dollar is that additional currency, it means that... 22 00:02:40,430 --> 00:02:47,439 S. has to have a chronic current account deficit, and that is not appropriate. 23 00:02:47,439 --> 00:02:53,439 So I think it's in our interest as well to reform the system. 24 00:02:53,439 --> 00:03:01,439 I think this is a healthy, painful adjustment that the world has to go through. 25 00:03:02,020 --> 00:03:08,500 America doesn't actively take part in this sort of renegotiation of global finance. 26 00:03:08,500 --> 00:03:17,039 What will happen? What's your nightmare scenario? Well, the Chinese will go... 27 00:03:17,039 --> 00:03:23,689 They already do it. They already have a clearing arrangement with Argentina 28 00:03:23,699 --> 00:03:30,460 , and I think they're working on one with Brazil, and you will find that there 29 00:03:30,460 --> 00:03:37,490 will be more and more bilateral arrangements. So the dollar will 30 00:03:37,490 --> 00:03:46,330 remain the main international currency, but its use will decline. 31 00:03:46,340 --> 00:03:53,960 So I think that a world of bilateral relations is less desirable 32 00:03:53,990 --> 00:04:01,129 than a continuation of a multilateral system. But the system 33 00:04:01,129 --> 00:04:08,439 we have now has actually broken down, only we haven't quite recognized it. 34 00:04:08,439 --> 00:04:14,360 And so you need to create a new one. And this is the time to do it. 35 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:20,360 In the United States, how worried are you about the budget deficit and maybe about t... 36 00:04:20,939 --> 00:04:28,829 Well, certainly a decline in the value of the dollar is necessary 37 00:04:28,829 --> 00:04:35,600 in order to compensate for the fact that the U.S. 38 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:42,420 economy will remain rather weak. will be a drag on the 39 00:04:42,420 --> 00:04:49,740 global economy. China will emerge as the motor replacing the U. 40 00:04:49,740 --> 00:04:57,480 S. consumer. And of course it's a smaller motor because the Chinese economy is much... 41 00:04:57,480 --> 00:05:04,199 So the world economy will have less of a motor. So it will move forward slower than... 42 00:05:04,199 --> 00:05:11,339 in the last 25 years. But China will be the engine driving 43 00:05:11,339 --> 00:05:18,170 it forward, and the U.S. will be actually a drag that's being 44 00:05:18,170 --> 00:05:24,600 pulled along through a gradual decline in the value of the dollar. 45 00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:32,759 So there would be a slow decline in the value of the dollar, a managed decline. 46 00:05:32,759 --> 00:05:38,009 And that would be the adjustment that it needs to be accomplished. 47 00:05:38,009 --> 00:06:04,199 Now it could actually get out of hand. [ 48 00:06:04,199 --> 00:06:12,759 Music]