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When people say we don't believe in global warming, I say no, I believe in global warming.

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I don't believe that human CO2 is causing that warming.

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A few years ago, if you would ask me, I would tell you it's CO2.

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Why?

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Because just like everyone else in the public, I listened to what the media had to say.

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Each day, the news reports grow more fantastically apocalyptic.

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Politicians no longer dare to express any doubt about climate change.

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There is such intolerance of any dissenting voice.

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Some of the worst climate criminals on the planet.

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This is the most politically incorrect thing possible, is to doubt this climate change orthodoxy.

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Global warming has gone beyond politics.

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It is a new kind of morality.

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The Prime Minister is back from his holidays, unrepentant and unembarrassed about yet another long haul destination.

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Yet, as the frenzy of a man-made global warming grows shriller,

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many senior climate scientists say the actual scientific basis for the theory is crumbling.

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There were periods, for example, in Earth's history when we had three times as much CO2 as we have today,

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or periods when we had ten times as much CO2 as we have today.

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And if CO2 has a large effect on climate, then you should see it in the temperature reconstruction.

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If we look at climate through the geological time frame, we would never suspect CO2 as a major climate driver.

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None of the major climate changes in the last thousand years can be explained by CO2.

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We can't say that CO2 will drive climate. It certainly never did in the past.

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I've often heard it said that there is a consensus of thousands of scientists on the global warming issue,

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and that humans are causing a catastrophic change to the climate system.

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Well, I am one scientist, and there are many that simply think that is not true.

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Man-made global warming is no ordinary scientific theory.

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This morning, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change made up of...

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It is presented in the media as having the stamp of authority of an impressive international organisation.

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...from the IPCC...

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The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC.

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The IPCC, like any UN body, is political. The final conclusions are politically driven.

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This claim that the IPCC is the world's top 1,500 or 2,500 scientists,

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you look at the bibliographies of the people and it's simply not true.

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There are quite a number of non-scientists.

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And to build the number up to 2,500, they have to start taking reviewers and government people and so on,

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anyone who ever came close to them. And none of them are asked to agree. Many of them disagree.

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Those people who are specialists but don't agree with the polemic and resign,

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and there have been a number that I know of, they are simply put on the author list

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and become part of this 2,500 of the world's top scientists.

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Some people have decided you have to convince other people that since no scientist disagrees,

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you shouldn't disagree either. But whenever you hear that in science, that's pure propaganda.

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This is the story of how a theory about climate turned into a political ideology.

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See, I don't even like to call it the environmental movement anymore,

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because really it is a political activist movement, and they have become hugely influential at a global level.

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It is the story of the distortion of a whole area of science.

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Climate scientists need there to be a problem in order to get funding.

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We have a vested interest in creating panic, because then money will flow to climate science.

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There's one thing you shouldn't say, and that is, this might not be a problem.

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It is the story of how a political campaign turned into a bureaucratic bandwagon.

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The fact of the matter is that tens of thousands of jobs depend upon global warming right now.

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It's a big business.

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It's become a great industry in itself.

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And if the whole global warming farago collapsed, there'd be an awful lot of people out of jobs and looking for work.

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This is a story of censorship and intimidation.

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I have seen and heard their spitting fury at anybody who might disagree with them, which is not the scientific way.

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It is a story about Westerners invoking the threat of climatic disaster to hinder vital industrial progress in the developing world.

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One clear thing that emerges from the whole environmental debate is the point that there's somebody keen to kill the African dream, and the African dream is to develop.

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The environmental movement has evolved into the strongest force there is for preventing development in the developing countries.

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The global warming story is a cautionary tale of how a media scare became the defining idea of a generation.

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The whole global warming business has become like a religion.

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And people who disagree are called heretics.

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I'm a heretic.

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The makers of this program are all heretics.

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In 2005, a House of Lords inquiry was set up to examine the scientific evidence of man-made global warming.

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A leading figure in that inquiry was Lord Lawson of Blaby, who, as Chancellor of the Exchequer in the 1980s, was the first politician to commit government money to global warming research.

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We had a very, very thorough inquiry, took evidence from a whole lot of people, experts in this area, and produced a report.

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What surprised me was to discover how weak and uncertain the science was.

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In fact, there are more and more thoughtful people, some of them a little bit frightened to come out in the open, but who quietly, privately, and some of them publicly are saying, hang on, wait a minute, this simply doesn't work.

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This simply doesn't add up.

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We are told that the Earth's climate is changing.

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But the Earth's climate is always changing.

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In Earth's long history, there have been countless periods when it was much warmer and much cooler than it is today, when much of the world was covered by tropical forests or else vast ice sheets.

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The climate has always changed, and changed without any help from us humans.

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We can trace the present warming trend back at least 200 years, to the end of a very cold period in Earth's history.

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This cold spell is known to climatologists as the Little Ice Age.

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Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow.

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It doesn't show signs to stop...

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In the 14th century, Europe plunged into the Little Ice Age.

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And where we would look for evidence of this are the old illustrations and prints and pictures of Old Father Thames.

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Because during the hardest and toughest winters of that Little Ice Age, the Thames would freeze over.

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And there were wonderful ice fairs held on the Thames, skating and people actually selling things on the ice.

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If we look back further in time, before the Little Ice Age, we find a balmy golden era, when temperatures were higher than they are today, a time known to climatologists as the medieval warm period.

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It's important that people know that climate enabled a quite different lifestyle in the medieval period.

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We have this view today that warming is going to have apocalyptic outcomes.

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In fact, wherever you describe this warm period, it appears to be associated with riches.

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In Europe, this was the great age of the cathedral builders, a time when, according to Chaucer, vineyards flourished even in the north of England.

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All over the city of London, there are little memories of the vineyards that grew in the medieval warm period.

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So this was a wonderfully rich time.

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And this little church, in a sense, symbolises it, because it comes from a period of great wealth.

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Going back in time further still, before the medieval warm period, we find more warm spells, including a very prolonged period during the Bronze Age, known to geologists as the Holocene Maximum, when temperatures were significantly higher than they are now for more than three millennia.

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If we go back 8,000 years in the Holocene period, our current inner glacial, it was much warmer than it is today.

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Now the polar bears obviously survived that period. They're with us today.

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They are very adaptable, and these warm periods in the past, what we call hypsothermals, pose no problem for them.

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Climate variation in the past is clearly natural. So why do we think it's any different today?

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In the current alarm about global warming, the culprit is industrial society.

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Thanks to modern industry, luxuries once enjoyed exclusively by the rich are now available in abundance to ordinary people.

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Novel technologies have made life easier and richer. Modern transport and communications have made the world seem less foreign and distant.

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Industrial progress has changed our lives. But has it also changed the climate?

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According to the theory of man-made global warming, industrial growth should cause the temperature to rise. But does it?

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Anyone who goes around and says that carbon dioxide is responsible for most of the warming of the 20th century hasn't looked at the basic numbers.

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Industrial production in the early decades of the 20th century was still in its infancy, restricted to only a few countries, handicapped by war and economic depression.

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After the Second World War, things changed. Consumer goods like refrigerators and washing machines and TVs and cars began to be mass-produced for an international market.

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Historians call this global explosion of industrial activity the post-war economic boom.

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So how does the industrial story compare with the temperature record?

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Since the mid-19th century, the Earth's temperature has risen by just over half a degree Celsius.

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But this warming began long before cars and planes were even invented.

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What's more, most of the rise in temperature occurred before 1940, during a period when industrial production was relatively insignificant.

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After the Second World War, during the post-war economic boom, temperatures, in theory, should have shot up.

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But they didn't. They fell. Not for one or two years, but for four decades.

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In fact, paradoxically, it wasn't until the world economic recession in the 1970s that they stopped falling.

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If we can't say that the temperature is rapidly, but yet the temperature is decreasing, then we cannot say that CO2 and the temperature go together.

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Temperature went up significantly up to 1940, when human production of CO2 was relatively low.

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And then in the post-war years, when industry and the whole economies of the world really got going, and human production of CO2 just soared, the global temperature was going down.

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In other words, the facts didn't fit the theory.

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Just at a time when, after the Second World War, industry was booming, carbon dioxide was increasing, and yet the earth was getting cooler and starting off scares over coming ice age, it made absolutely no sense. It still doesn't make sense.

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Why do we suppose that carbon dioxide is responsible for our changing climate?

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CO2 forms only a very small part of the earth's atmosphere. In fact, we measure changes in the level of atmospheric CO2 in tens of parts per million.

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If you take CO2 as a percentage of all the gases in the atmosphere, the oxygen, the nitrogen, and argon, and so on, it's 0.054%. It's an incredibly small portion.

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And then, of course, you've got to take that portion that supposedly humans are adding, which is the focus of all the concern, and it gets even smaller.

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Although CO2 is a greenhouse gas, greenhouse gases themselves only form a small part of the atmosphere. What's more, CO2 is a relatively minor greenhouse gas.

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The atmosphere is made up of a multitude of gases, a small percentage of them we call greenhouse gases, and of that very small percentage of greenhouse gases, 95% of it is water vapor. It's the most important greenhouse gas.

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Water vapor is a greenhouse gas, by far the most important greenhouse gas.

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So is there any way of checking whether the recent warming was due to an increase in greenhouse gas?

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There is only one way to tell, and that is to look up in the sky, or a part of the sky known to scientists as the troposphere.

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If it's greenhouse warming, you get more warming in the middle of the troposphere, the first 10, 12 kilometers of the atmosphere, than you do at the surface.

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There are good theoretical reasons for that, having to do with how the greenhouse works.

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The greenhouse effect works like this. The sun sends its heat down to Earth.

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If it weren't for greenhouse gases, this solar radiation would bounce back into space, leaving the planet cold and uninhabitable.

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Greenhouse gas traps the escaping heat in the Earth's troposphere, a few miles above the surface.

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And it's here, according to the climate models, that the rate of warming should be highest, if it's greenhouse gas that's causing it.

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All the models, every one of them, calculates that the warming should be faster as you go up from the surface into the atmosphere.

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And in fact, the maximum warming over the equator should take place at an altitude of about 10 kilometers.

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A scientist largely responsible for measuring the temperature in the Earth's atmosphere is Professor John Christie.

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In 1991, he was awarded NASA's Medal for Exceptional Scientific Achievement.

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And in 1996, received a special award from the American Meteorological Society for fundamentally advancing our ability to monitor climate.

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He was a lead author on the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC.

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There are two ways to take the temperature in the Earth's atmosphere, satellites and weather balloons.

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What we found consistently is that in a...

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Great part of the planet, that the bulk of the atmosphere is not warming as much as we see at the surface in this region.

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And that's a real head-scratcher for us, because the theory is pretty straightforward.

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And the theory says that if the surface warms, the upper atmosphere should warm rapidly.

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The rise in temperature of that part of the atmosphere is not very dry, and that's why we're not seeing any warming.

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The rise in temperature of that part of the atmosphere is not very dramatic at all, and really does not match the theory that climate models are expressing at this point.

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One of the problems that is plaguing the models is that they predict that as you go up through the atmosphere, except in the polar regions, that the rate of warming increases.

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And it's quite clear from two datasets, not just satellite data, which everybody talks about, but from weather balloon data, that you don't see that effect.

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In fact, it looks like the surface temperatures are warming slightly more than the upper air temperatures. That's a big difference.

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That data gives you a handle on the fact that what you're seeing is warming that probably is not due to greenhouse gases.

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That is, the observations do not show an increase with altitude. In fact, most observations show a slight decrease in the rate of warming with altitude.

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So in a sense, you can say that the hypothesis of man-made global warming is falsified by the evidence.

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So the recent warming of the Earth happened in the wrong place and at the wrong time.

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Most of the warming took place in the early part of the 20th century and occurred mostly at the Earth's surface, the very opposite of what should have happened according to the theory of man-made global warming.

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I am Al Gore. I used to be the next president of the United States of America.

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Former Vice President Al Gore's emotional film, An Inconvenient Truth, is regarded by many as the definitive popular presentation of the theory of man-made global warming.

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His argument rests on one all-important piece of evidence taken from ice core surveys in which scientists drill deep into the ice to look back into Earth's climate history hundreds of thousands of years.

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The first ice core survey took place in Vostok in the Antarctic. What it found, as Al Gore correctly points out, was a clear correlation between carbon dioxide and temperature.

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We're going back in time now, 650,000 years. Here's what the temperature has been on our Earth.

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Now one thing that kind of jumps out at you is, did they ever fit together?

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Most ridiculous thing I've ever heard.

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The relationship is actually very complicated, but there is one relationship that is far more powerful than all the others, and it is this.

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When there is more carbon dioxide, the temperature gets warmer.

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Al Gore says the relationship between temperature and CO2 is complicated, but he doesn't say what those complications are.

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In fact, there was something very important in the ice core data that he failed to mention.

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Professor Ian Clark is a leading Arctic paleoclimatologist who looks back into the Earth's temperature record tens of millions of years.

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When we look at climate on long scales, we're looking for geological material that actually records climate.

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If we were to take an ice sample, for example, we use isotopes to reconstruct temperature, but the atmosphere that's imprisoned in that ice, we liberate, and then we look at the CO2 content.

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Professor Clark and others have indeed discovered, as Al Gore says, a link between carbon dioxide and temperature.

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But what Al Gore doesn't say is that the link is the wrong way round.

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So here we're looking at the ice core record from Vostok, and in the red we see temperature going up from early time to later time at a very key interval when we came out of a glaciation.

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And we see the temperature going up, and then we see the CO2 coming up.

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We see the CO2 coming up. CO2 lags behind that increase. It's got an 800-year lag, so temperature is leading CO2 by 800 years.

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There have now been several major ice core surveys. Every one of them shows the same thing.

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The temperature rises or falls, and then, after a few hundred years, carbon dioxide follows.

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So obviously, carbon dioxide is not the cause of that warming. In fact, we can say that the warming produced the increase in carbon dioxide.

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CO2 clearly cannot be causing temperature changes. It's a product of temperature. It's following temperature changes.

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The ice core record goes to the very heart of the problem we have here.

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They said, if the CO2 increases in the atmosphere as a greenhouse gas, then the temperature will go up.

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But the ice core record shows exactly the opposite. So the fundamental assumption, the most fundamental assumption of the whole theory of climate change, due to humans, is shown to be wrong.

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But how can it be that higher temperatures lead to more CO2 in the atmosphere?

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To understand this, we must first restate the obvious point that carbon dioxide is a natural gas produced by all living things.

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Few things annoy me more than to hear people talking about carbon dioxide as being a pollutant.

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You're made of carbon dioxide. I'm made of carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide is how living things grow.

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What's more, humans are not the main source of carbon dioxide.

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Humans produce a small fraction in the single digits, percentage-wise, of the CO2 that is produced in the atmosphere.

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Volcanoes produce more CO2 each year than all the factories and cars and planes and other sources of man-made carbon dioxide put together.

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More still comes from animals and bacteria, which produce about 150 gigatons of CO2 each year compared to a mere 6.5 gigatons from humans.

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An even larger source of CO2 is dying vegetation, from falling leaves, for example, in the autumn.

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But the biggest source of CO2, by far, is the oceans.

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Carl Wunsch is Professor of Oceanography at MIT. He was also Visiting Professor in Oceanography at Harvard University and University College London, and a Senior Visiting Fellow in Mathematics and Physics at the University of Cambridge.

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He is the author of four major textbooks on oceanography.

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The ocean is the major reservoir into which carbon dioxide goes when it comes out of the atmosphere or from which it is re-emitted to the atmosphere.

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If you heat the surface of the ocean, it tends to emit carbon dioxide.

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So similarly, if you cool the ocean surface, the ocean can dissolve more carbon dioxide.

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So the warmer the oceans, the more carbon dioxide they produce, and the cooler they are, the more they suck in.

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But why is there a time lag of hundreds of years between a change in temperature and a change in the amount of carbon dioxide going into or out of the sea?

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The reason is that oceans are so big and so deep, they take literally hundreds of years to warm up and cool down.

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This time lag means the oceans have what scientists call a memory of temperature changes.

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The ocean has a memory of past events running out as far as 10,000 years.

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So, for example, if somebody says, oh, I'm seeing changes in the North Atlantic, this must mean that the climate system is changing.

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It may only mean that something happened in a remote part of the ocean decades or hundreds of years ago whose effects are now beginning to show up in the North Atlantic.

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The current warming began long before people had cars or electric lights.

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In the past 150 years, the temperature has risen just over half a degree Celsius.

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But most of that rise occurred before 1940.

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Since that time, the temperature has fallen for four decades and risen for three.

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There is no evidence at all from Earth's long climate history that carbon dioxide has ever determined global temperatures.

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But if CO2 doesn't drive Earth's climate, what does?

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The common belief that carbon dioxide is driving climate change is at odds with much of the available scientific data.

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Data from weather balloons and satellites, from ice core surveys and from the historical temperature records.

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But if CO2 isn't driving climate, what is?

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Isn't it bizarre to think that it's humans, you know, when we're filling up our car, turning on our lights, that we're the ones controlling climate?

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Just look in the sky. Look at that massive thing, the sun.

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Even humans at our present six and a half billion are minute relative to that.

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In the late 1980s, solar physicist Piers Corbin decided to try a radically new way of forecasting the weather.

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Despite the huge resources of the official Met Office, Corbin's new technique consistently produced more accurate results.

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He was hailed in the national press as a super weather expert, but he was also a very good

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The secret of his success was the sun.

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The origin of our solar weather technique of long range forecasting came originally from study of sunspots and a desire to predict those.

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And then I realised it was actually much more interesting to use the sun to predict the weather.

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Sunspots, we now know, are intense magnetic fields which appear at times of higher solar activity.

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But for many hundreds of years, long before this was properly understood, astronomers around the world used to count the number of sunspots in the belief that more spots heralded warmer weather.

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In 1893, the British astronomer Edward Maunder observed that during the Little Ice Age, there were barely any spots visible on the sun.

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A period of solar inactivity which became known as the Maunder minimum.

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But how reliable are sunspots as an indicator of the weather?

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I decided to test it by gambling on the weather through William Hill against what the Met Office said was a normal expectation.

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And I won money month after month after month after month.

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Last winter the Met Office said it could be or would be an exceptionally cold winter.

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We said no, that is nonsense, it's going to be very close to normal.

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And we specifically said when it would be cold, i.e. after winter.

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And we specifically said when it would be cold, i.e. after Christmas and February.

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We were right, they were wrong.

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In 1991, senior scientists at the Danish Meteorological Institute decided to compile a record of sunspots in the 20th century and compare it with the temperature record.

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What they found was an incredibly close correlation between what the sun was doing and changes in temperature on Earth.

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Solar activity they found rose sharply to 1940, fell back for four decades until the 1970s and then rose again after that.

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When we saw this correlation between the temperature and solar activity or sunspot cyclings, then people said to us, okay, it can be just a coincidence.

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So how can we prove that it's not just a coincidence?

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Well, one obvious thing is to have a longer time series or different time series.

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Then we went back in time.

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So Professor Fries Christensen and his colleagues examined 400 years of astronomical records to compare sunspot activity against temperature variation.

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Once again, they found that variations in solar activity were intimately linked to temperature variation on Earth.

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It was the sun, it seemed, not carbon dioxide or anything else that was driving changes in the climate.

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In a way, it's not surprising.

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The sun affects us directly, of course, when it sends down its heat.

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But we now know the sun also affects us indirectly through clouds.

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Clouds have a powerful cooling effect.

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But how are they formed?

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In the early 20th century, scientists discovered that the Earth was constantly being bombarded by subatomic particles.

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These particles, which they called cosmic rays, originated, it was believed, from exploding supernovae far beyond our solar system.

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When the particles coming down meet water vapour rising up from the sea, they form water droplets and make clouds.

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But when the sun is more active and the solar wind is strong, fewer particles get through and fewer clouds are formed.

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Just how powerful this effect was became clear only recently when an astrophysicist, Professor Neher Shaviv, decided to compare his own record of cloud forming cosmic rays with the temperature record created by a geologist, Professor Jan Weitzer, going back 600 million years.

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What they found was that when cosmic rays went up, the temperature went down. When cosmic rays went down, the temperature went up.

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Clouds and the Earth's climate were very closely linked, to see how close you just flip the lines.

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We just compared the graphs, just put them one upon the other, and it was just amazing.

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Jan Weiser looked at me and said, you know, we have very explosive data here.

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I've never seen such vastly different records coming together so beautifully to show really what was happening over that long period of time.

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The climate was controlled by the clouds. The clouds were controlled by cosmic rays. And the cosmic rays were controlled by the sun. It all came down to the sun.

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If you had X-ray eyes, what appears as a nice friendly yellow ball would appear like a raging tiger.

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The sun is an incredibly violent beast. And it's throwing out great explosions and puffs of gas.

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The sun is an incredibly violent beast. And it's throwing out great explosions and puffs of gas.

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An endless solar wind that's forever rushing past the Earth.

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We're in a certain sense inside the atmosphere of the sun.

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The intensity of its magnetic field more than doubled during the 20th century.

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In 2005, astrophysicists from Harvard University published the following graph in the official Journal of the American Geophysical Union.

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The blue line represents temperature change in the Arctic over the past hundred years.

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And here is the rise in carbon dioxide over the same period.

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The two are not obviously connected. But now look again at the temperature record.

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And at this red line, which depicts variations in solar activity over the past century as recorded independently by scientists from NASA and America's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

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Solar activity over the last hundred years, over the last several hundred years, correlates very nicely on a decadal basis with sea ice and Arctic temperatures.

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To the Harvard astrophysicists and many other scientists, the conclusion is inescapable.

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The sun is driving climate change. CO2 is irrelevant.

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But why, if this is so, are we bombarded day after day with news items about man-made global warming?

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Why do so many people in the media and elsewhere regard it as an undisputed fact?

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To understand the power of global warming theory, we must tell the story of how it came about.

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The weather satellite depicts a planet that grieves for its lost harvests.

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Doom-laden predictions about climate change are not new.

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In 1974, the BBC warned us of impending disasters, which might seem strangely familiar.

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And what was going to be the cause of these disasters?

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The man behind the series was former New Scientist editor Nigel Calder.

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He had the opinion of the time which was global cooling and the threat of a new ice age.

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Nature's ice dwarfs us.

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After four decades of falling temperatures, experts warned that a cooler world would have catastrophic consequences.

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There's the ever-present threat of a big freeze. Will a new ice age claim our lands and bury our northern cities?

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But amid the doom and gloom, there was one voice of hope.

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A Swedish scientist called Bert Bollin tentatively suggested that man-made carbon dioxide might help to warm the world, although he wasn't sure.

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And there's a lot of oil and there are vast amounts of coal left.

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We seem to be burning it with an ever-increasing rate.

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And if we go on doing this, in about 50 years' time, the climate may be a few degrees warmer than today.

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We just don't know.

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We were also the first to put Bert Bollin of Sweden on international television talking about the dangers of carbon dioxide.

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And I remember being bitterly criticised by top experts for indulging him in his fantasy.

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At the height of the cooling scare in the 70s, Bert Bollin's eccentric theory of man-made global warming seemed absurd.

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Two things happened to change that.

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First, temperatures started to rise. And second, the miners went on strike.

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To Margaret Thatcher, energy was a political problem.

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In the early 70s, the oil crisis had plunged the world into recession and the miners had brought down Ted Heath's Conservative government.

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Mrs Thatcher was determined the same would not happen to her. She set out to break their power.

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What we have seen in this country is the emergence of an organised revolutionary minority who are prepared to exploit industrial disputes,

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but whose real aim is the breakdown of law and order and the destruction of democratic parliamentary government.

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The politicisation of the subject started with Margaret Thatcher.

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She was very concerned always, I remember when I was Secretary of State for Energy, to promote nuclear power,

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long before the issue of climate change came up, because she was concerned about energy security.

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And she didn't trust the Middle East and she didn't trust the National Union of Mineworkers.

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So she didn't trust oil and she didn't trust coal. So therefore she felt we really had to push ahead with nuclear power.

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And then when the climate change, global warming thing came up, she felt, well this is great, this is another argument,

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because it doesn't have any carbon dioxide emissions, this is another argument why you should go for nuclear.

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And that is what she was really largely saying. It's been misrepresented since then.

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And so she said to the scientists, she went to the Royal Society and she said,

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there's money on the table for you to prove this stuff. So of course they went away and did that.

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Inevitably, the moment politicians put their weight behind something and attach their name to it in some ways,

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of course, money will flow, that's the way it goes.

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And inevitably research, development institutions started to bubble up, put it that way,

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which were going to be researching climate, but with a particular emphasis on the relationship between carbon dioxide and temperature.

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At the request of Mrs Thatcher, the UK Met Office set up a climate modelling unit,

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which provided the basis for a new international committee called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC.

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They came out with the first big report, which predicted climatic disaster as a result of global warming.

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I remember going to the scientific press conference and being amazed by two things.

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First, the simplicity and eloquence of the message and the vigor with which it was delivered.

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And secondly, the total disregard of all climate science up till that time,

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including, incidentally, the role of the sun, which had been the subject of a major meeting at the Royal Society just a few months earlier.

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But the new emphasis on man-made carbon dioxide as a possible environmental problem didn't just appeal to Mrs Thatcher.

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It was certainly something very favourable to the environmental idea,

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what I call the medieval environmentalism of let's get back to the way things were in medieval times

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and get rid of all these dreadful cars and machines.

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They loved it because carbon dioxide was for them an emblem of industrialisation.

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Well, carbon dioxide clearly is an industrial gas and tried and sort of tied in with economic growth,

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with transportation in cars, with what we call civilisation.

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And there are forces in the environmental movement that are simply against economic growth. They think that's bad.

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It could be used to legitimise a whole suite of myths that already existed.

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Anti-car, anti-growth, anti-development and above all, anti-that great Satan, the US.

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Patrick Moore is considered one of the foremost environmentalists of his generation. He is co-founder of Greenpeace.

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The shift to climate being a major focal point came about for two very distinct reasons.

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The first reason was because by the mid-80s a majority of people now agreed with all of the reasonable things

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we in the environmental movement were saying they should do.

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Now when a majority of people agree with you, it's pretty hard to remain confrontational with them.

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And so the only way to remain anti-establishment was to adopt ever more extreme positions.

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When I left Greenpeace it was in the midst of them adopting a campaign to ban chlorine worldwide.

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Like I said, you guys, this is one of the elements in the periodic table, you know.

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I mean, I'm not sure if that's in our jurisdiction to be banning a whole element.

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The other reason that environmental extremism emerged was because world communism failed, the wall came down

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and a lot of peaceniks and political activists moved into the environmental movement bringing their neo-Marxism with them

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and learned to use green language in a very clever way to cloak agendas that actually have more to do with

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anti-capitalism and anti-globalization than they do anything with ecology or science.

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The left have been slightly disoriented by the manifest failure of socialism and indeed more so of communism

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as it was tried out and therefore they still remain as anti-capitalists as they were,

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but they have to find a new guise for their anti-capitalism.

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And it was a kind of amazing alliance from Margaret Thatcher on the right,

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through to very left-wing anti-capitalist environmentalists that created this kind of momentum behind a loony idea.

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By the early 1990s, man-made global warming was no longer a slightly eccentric theory about climate.

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It was a full-blown political campaign. It was attracting media attention.

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Prior to Bush the Elder, I think the level of funding for climate and climate-related sciences was somewhere around the order of $170 million a year,

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which was reasonable for the size of the field. It jumped to $2 billion a year,

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more than a factor of $10 billion.

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And yeah, that changed a lot. I mean, that's a lot of jobs.

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A lot of jobs. It brought a lot of new people into it who otherwise were not interested.

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So you developed whole cadres of people who's only interested in the science of climate.

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And that's what we're doing now.

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We're doing a lot of research. We're doing a lot of research.

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So you developed whole cadres of people who's only interested in the field was that there was global warming.

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If I wanted to do research on, shall we say, the squirrels of Sussex,

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what I would do, and this is any time from 1990 onwards,

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I would write my grant application saying I want to investigate the nut-gathering behavior of squirrels

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with special reference to the effects of global warming.

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And that way I get my money. If I forget to mention global warming, I might not get the money.

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There's only no question in my mind that the large amounts of money that have been fed into this particular rather small area of science

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have distorted the overall scientific effort.

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We're all competing for funds. And if your field is the focus of concern,

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you have that much less work rationalizing why your field should be funded.

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By the 1990s, tens of billions of dollars of government funding in the US, UK and elsewhere

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were being diverted into research relating to global warming.

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A large portion of those funds went into building computer models to forecast what the climate will be in the future.

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But how accurate are those models?

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Dr. Roy Spencer was senior scientist for climate studies at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center.

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He has been awarded medals for exceptional scientific achievement from both NASA and the American Meteorological Society.

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Climate models are only as good as the assumptions that go into them, and they have hundreds of assumptions.

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All it takes is one assumption to be wrong for the forecast to be way off.

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Climate forecasts are not new, but in the past scientists were more modest about their ability to predict the weather.

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Any attempt at forecasting changes of climate meets skepticism from the men who model the weather by computer.

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In making decisions which affect people, a bad prediction as to what the climate of the future will be can be far worse than none at all.

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I'm afraid that our understanding of the complex weather machine is not yet good enough to make a reliable statement of the future.

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All models assume that man-made CO2 is the main cause of climate change, rather than the sun or the clouds.

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The analogy I use is like my car is not running very well, so I'm going to ignore the engine, which is the sun,

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and I'm going to ignore the transmission, which is the water vapor, and I'm going to look at one nut on the right rear wheel, which is the human-produced CO2.

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It's that, the science is that bad.

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If you haven't understood the climate system, if you haven't understood all the components, the cosmic rays, the solar, the CO2,

383
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:46,920
the water vapor, the clouds, and put it all together, if you haven't got all that, then your model isn't worth anything.

384
00:46:47,920 --> 00:46:56,920
The range of climate forecasts varies greatly. These variations are produced by subtly altering the assumptions upon which the models are based.

385
00:46:57,920 --> 00:47:04,920
The models are so complicated you can often adjust them in such a way that they do something very exciting.

386
00:47:05,920 --> 00:47:12,920
I've worked with modelers, I've done modelling, and with a mathematical model and you tweak parameters, you can model anything.

387
00:47:13,920 --> 00:47:16,920
You can make it warmer, you can make it get colder by changing things.

388
00:47:19,920 --> 00:47:30,920
Since all the models assume that man-made CO2 causes warming, one obvious way to produce a more impressive forecast is to increase the amount of imagined man-made CO2 going into the atmosphere.

389
00:47:31,920 --> 00:47:43,920
We put an increase in carbon dioxide in them that is 1% per year. It's been 0.49% per year for the last 10 years, 0.42 for the 10 years before that, and 0.43 for the 10 years before that.

390
00:47:44,920 --> 00:47:51,920
So the models have twice as much greenhouse warming radiation going in them as is known to be happening.

391
00:47:52,920 --> 00:47:55,920
It shouldn't shock you that they predict more warming than is occurring.

392
00:48:00,920 --> 00:48:04,920
Models predict what the temperature might be in 50 or 100 years' time.

393
00:48:05,920 --> 00:48:12,920
It is one of their peculiar features that long-range climate forecasts are only proved wrong long after people have forgotten about them.

394
00:48:13,920 --> 00:48:23,920
As a result, there is a danger, according to Professor Carl Wunsch, that modelers will be less concerned in producing a forecast that is accurate than one that is interesting.

395
00:48:24,920 --> 00:48:27,920
Even within the scientific community, you see it's a problem.

396
00:48:28,920 --> 00:48:39,920
If I run a complicated model and I do something to it, like melt a lot of ice into the ocean, and nothing happens, it's not likely to get printed.

397
00:48:40,920 --> 00:48:51,920
But if I run the same model and I adjust it in such a way that something dramatic happens to the ocean circulation, like the heat transport turns off, it will be published.

398
00:48:51,920 --> 00:48:55,920
People say this is very exciting. It will even get picked up by the media.

399
00:48:56,920 --> 00:49:06,920
So there is a bias, there's a very powerful bias within the media and within the science community itself, toward results which are dramatizable.

400
00:49:08,920 --> 00:49:15,920
The Earth freezes over. That's a much more interesting story than saying, well, you know, it fluctuates around.

401
00:49:15,920 --> 00:49:22,920
Sometimes the mass flux goes up by 10 percent, sometimes it goes down by 20 percent, but eventually it comes back.

402
00:49:23,920 --> 00:49:27,920
Well, you know, which would you do a story on? I mean, that's what it's about.

403
00:49:29,920 --> 00:49:37,920
To the untrained eye, computer models look impressive, and they give often wild speculation about the climate the appearance of rigorous science.

404
00:49:38,920 --> 00:49:42,920
They also provide an endless source of spectacular stories for the media.

405
00:49:42,920 --> 00:49:53,920
The thing that has amazed me as a lifelong journalist is how the most elementary principles of journalism seem to have been abandoned on this subject.

406
00:49:54,920 --> 00:49:59,920
In fact, the theory of man-made global warming has spawned an entirely new branch of journalism.

407
00:50:00,920 --> 00:50:05,920
You've got a whole new generation of reporters, environmental journalists.

408
00:50:06,920 --> 00:50:15,920
Now, if you're an environmental journalist, and if the global warming story goes in the trash can, so does your job.

409
00:50:16,920 --> 00:50:32,920
It really is that crude. And the reporting has to get more and more hysterical because there are still, fortunately, a few hardened news editors around who will say, you know, this is what you were saying five years ago.

410
00:50:32,920 --> 00:50:39,920
Ah, but now it's much, much worse. You know, there's going to be 10 feet of sea level rise by next Tuesday or something.

411
00:50:40,920 --> 00:50:44,920
They have to keep on getting shriller and shriller and shriller.

412
00:50:46,920 --> 00:50:54,920
It is now common in the media to lay the blame for every storm or hurricane on global warming. But is there any scientific basis for this?

413
00:50:55,920 --> 00:51:09,920
This is purely propaganda. Every textbook in meteorology is telling you the main source of weather disturbances is the temperature difference between the tropics and the pole.

414
00:51:10,920 --> 00:51:20,920
And we're told in a warmer world, this difference will get less. Now, that would tell you, you will have less storminess, you'll have less variability.

415
00:51:21,920 --> 00:51:26,920
But for some reason, that isn't considered catastrophic. So you're told the opposite.

416
00:51:27,920 --> 00:51:38,920
News reports frequently argue that even a mild increase in global temperature could lead to a catastrophic melting of the polar ice caps. But what does Earth's climate history tell us?

417
00:51:39,920 --> 00:51:46,920
We happen to have temperature records of Greenland that go back thousands of years. Greenland has been much warmer.

418
00:51:47,920 --> 00:51:54,920
Just a thousand years ago, Greenland was warmer than it is today. Yet it didn't have a dramatic melting event.

419
00:51:55,920 --> 00:52:03,920
Even if we talk about something like permafrost, a great deal of the permafrost, that icy layer under the forests of Russia, for example,

420
00:52:03,920 --> 00:52:08,920
seven or eight thousand years ago, melted far more than we're having any evidence about it melting now.

421
00:52:09,920 --> 00:52:14,920
So in other words, this is a historical pattern again, but the world didn't come to a crunching halt because of it.

422
00:52:16,920 --> 00:52:22,920
Professor Sionishi Akasofu is head of the International Arctic Research Centre in Alaska.

423
00:52:23,920 --> 00:52:27,920
The IARC is the world's leading Arctic Research Institute.

424
00:52:27,920 --> 00:52:34,920
Professor Akasofu insists that over time the ice caps are always naturally expanding and contracting.

425
00:52:35,920 --> 00:52:42,920
There are reports from time to time of big chunk of ice break away from the Antarctic continent.

426
00:52:44,920 --> 00:52:56,920
Those must have been happening all the time. But because now we have a satellite that can detect those, that's why they become news.

427
00:52:57,920 --> 00:53:07,920
This data from NASA's meteorological satellites shows the huge natural expansion and contraction of the polar sea ice taking place in the 1990s.

428
00:53:08,920 --> 00:53:16,920
All the TV programmes that relate to global warming show a big chunk of ice falling from the edge of the glaciers.

429
00:53:17,920 --> 00:53:20,920
But people forget that ice is always moving.

430
00:53:21,920 --> 00:53:26,920
News reports frequently show images of ice breaking from the edge of the Arctic.

431
00:53:27,920 --> 00:53:33,920
What they don't say is that this is as ordinary an event in the Arctic as falling leaves on an English autumn day.

432
00:53:34,920 --> 00:53:40,920
They ask me, did you see ice falling from the edge of the glaciers? Yes.

433
00:53:41,920 --> 00:53:44,920
That's the spring break up. That's happened every year.

434
00:53:44,920 --> 00:53:54,920
Press come to us all the time, you know, I want to see something, the greenhouse disaster. I say there's none.

435
00:53:56,920 --> 00:54:01,920
Alarming television programmes raise the fearful prospect of vast tidal waves flooding Britain.

436
00:54:02,920 --> 00:54:05,920
But what causes the sea level to change and how fast does it happen?

437
00:54:06,920 --> 00:54:11,920
Sea level changes over the world in general are governed fundamentally by two factors.

438
00:54:11,920 --> 00:54:18,920
What we would call local factors, the relationship of the sea to the land, which often by the way is to do with the land rising or falling,

439
00:54:18,920 --> 00:54:20,920
than anything to do with the sea.

440
00:54:20,920 --> 00:54:29,920
But if you're talking about what we call eustatic changes of sea, worldwide changes of sea, that's through the thermal expansion of the oceans,

441
00:54:29,920 --> 00:54:34,920
nothing to do with melting ice. And that's an enormously slow and long process.

442
00:54:34,920 --> 00:54:38,920
People say, oh, I see the ocean doing this last year.

443
00:54:38,920 --> 00:54:43,920
That means that something changed in the atmosphere last year.

444
00:54:43,920 --> 00:54:45,920
And this is not necessarily true at all.

445
00:54:45,920 --> 00:54:57,920
In fact, it's actually quite unlikely because it can take hundreds to thousands of years for the deep ocean to respond to forces and changes that are taking place at the surface.

446
00:54:57,920 --> 00:55:07,920
It is also suggested that even a mild rise in temperature will lead to the spread northward of deadly insect borne tropical diseases like malaria.

447
00:55:07,920 --> 00:55:09,920
But is this true?

448
00:55:10,920 --> 00:55:18,920
Professor Paul Reiter of the Pasteur Institute in Paris is recognised as one of the world's leading experts on malaria and other insect borne diseases.

449
00:55:18,920 --> 00:55:22,920
He is a member of the World Health Organisation Expert Advisory Board.

450
00:55:23,920 --> 00:55:29,920
He was chairman of the American Committee of Medical Entomology of the American Society for Tropical Medicine

451
00:55:29,920 --> 00:55:36,920
and lead author on the health section of the US National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability.

452
00:55:36,920 --> 00:55:42,920
As Professor Reiter is eager to point out, mosquitoes thrive in very cold temperatures.

453
00:55:42,920 --> 00:55:46,920
Mosquitoes are not specifically tropical mosquitoes.

454
00:55:46,920 --> 00:55:49,920
Most people will realise that in temperate regions there are mosquitoes.

455
00:55:49,920 --> 00:55:54,920
In fact, mosquitoes are extremely abundant in the Arctic.

456
00:55:54,920 --> 00:56:00,920
The most devastating epidemic of malaria was in the Soviet Union in the 1920s.

457
00:56:00,920 --> 00:56:06,920
There were something like 13 million cases a year and something like 600,000 deaths.

458
00:56:06,920 --> 00:56:12,920
A tremendous catastrophe that reached up to the Arctic and the Arctic was the most devastating.

459
00:56:13,920 --> 00:56:17,920
A tremendous catastrophe that reached up to the Arctic Circle.

460
00:56:17,920 --> 00:56:21,920
Archangel had 30,000 cases and about 10,000 deaths.

461
00:56:21,920 --> 00:56:23,920
So it's not a tropical disease.

462
00:56:23,920 --> 00:56:31,920
Yet these people in the global warming fraternity invent the idea that malaria will move northwards.

463
00:56:32,920 --> 00:56:36,920
Climate scare stories cannot be blamed solely on sloppy or biased journalism.

464
00:56:37,920 --> 00:56:46,920
According to Professor Reiter, hysterical alarms have been encouraged by the reports of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or IPCC.

465
00:56:46,920 --> 00:56:50,920
On the spread of malaria, the IPCC warns us that...

466
00:56:58,920 --> 00:57:01,920
According to Professor Reiter, this is clearly untrue.

467
00:57:01,920 --> 00:57:09,920
I was horrified to read the second and the third assessment reports because there was so much misinformation

468
00:57:09,920 --> 00:57:18,920
without any kind of recourse or virtually without mention of the scientific literature, the truly scientific literature,

469
00:57:18,920 --> 00:57:21,920
the literature by specialists in those fields.

470
00:57:21,920 --> 00:57:28,920
In a letter to the Wall Street Journal, Professor Frederick Sites, former president of America's National Academy of Sciences,

471
00:57:28,920 --> 00:57:32,920
revealed that IPCC officials had censored the comments of scientists.

472
00:57:32,920 --> 00:57:34,920
He said that...

473
00:57:34,920 --> 00:57:38,920
This report is not the version that was approved by the contributing scientists.

474
00:57:38,920 --> 00:57:42,920
At least 15 key sections of the science chapter had been deleted.

475
00:57:42,920 --> 00:57:44,920
These included statements like...

476
00:57:59,920 --> 00:58:01,920
Professor Sites concluded...

477
00:58:10,920 --> 00:58:18,920
In its reply, the IPCC did not deny making these deletions, but it said there was no dishonesty or bias in the report

478
00:58:18,920 --> 00:58:22,920
and that uncertainties about the cause of global warming had been included.

479
00:58:23,920 --> 00:58:31,920
The changes had been made, it said, in response to comments from governments, individual scientists and non-governmental organisations.

480
00:58:31,920 --> 00:58:35,920
When I resigned from the IPCC, I thought that was the end of it.

481
00:58:35,920 --> 00:58:41,920
But when I saw the final draft, my name was still there, so I asked for it to be removed.

482
00:58:41,920 --> 00:58:45,920
Well, they told me that I had contributed, so it would remain there.

483
00:58:45,920 --> 00:58:49,920
So I said, no, I haven't contributed because they haven't listened to anything I've said.

484
00:58:49,920 --> 00:58:51,920
So in the end, it was quite a battle.

485
00:58:51,920 --> 00:58:55,920
But finally, I threatened legal action against them and they removed my name.

486
00:58:55,920 --> 00:58:57,920
And I think this happens a great deal.

487
00:58:57,920 --> 00:59:05,920
Those people who are specialists but don't agree with the polemic and resign, and there have been a number that I know of,

488
00:59:05,920 --> 00:59:12,920
they are simply put on the author list and become part of this 2,500 of the world's top scientists.

489
00:59:12,920 --> 00:59:17,920
Research relating to man-made global warming is now one of the best-funded areas of science.

490
00:59:17,920 --> 00:59:21,920
The US government alone spends more than $4 billion a year.

491
00:59:21,920 --> 00:59:28,920
According to NASA climatologist Roy Spencer, scientists who speak out against man-made global warming have a lot to lose.

492
00:59:28,920 --> 00:59:35,920
It's generally harder to get research proposals funded because of the stands that we've taken publicly.

493
00:59:35,920 --> 00:59:41,920
And you'll find very few of us that are willing to take a public stand because it does cut into their research funding.

494
00:59:42,920 --> 00:59:51,920
It is a common prejudice that scientists who do not agree with the theory of man-made global warming must be being paid by private industry to tell lies.

495
00:59:51,920 --> 00:59:55,920
I get it all the time. You must be in the pay of the multinationals.

496
00:59:55,920 --> 01:00:00:00,920
Sadly, like most of the scientists you'll talk to, I haven't seen a penny from the multinationals.

497
01:00:00,920 --> 01:00:02,920
I'm always accused of being paid by the oil and gas companies.

498
01:00:02,920 --> 01:00:05,920
I've never received a nickel from the oil and gas companies.

499
01:00:05,920 --> 01:00:08,920
I joke about it, I wish they would pay me, then I could afford their product.

500
01:00:08,920 --> 01:00:15,920
Whenever anybody says that I'm in the pay of an oil company, I say my bank manager would wish.

501
01:00:17,920 --> 01:00:21,920
There is almost no private sector investment in climatology.

502
01:00:21,920 --> 01:00:29,920
And yet, to be involved in any research project which involves an industry grant, no matter how small, can spell ruin to a scientist's reputation.

503
01:00:29,920 --> 01:00:32,920
Modern technology fuelled by greenhouse gases.

504
01:00:33,920 --> 01:00:38,920
Patrick Michaels is Professor of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia.

505
01:00:38,920 --> 01:00:43,920
He was Chair of the Committee on Applied Climatology at the American Meteorological Society,

506
01:00:43,920 --> 01:00:46,920
President of the American Association of State Climatologists,

507
01:00:46,920 --> 01:00:53,920
the author of three books on meteorology, and an author and reviewer on the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

508
01:00:54,920 --> 01:00:58,920
But when he conducted research which was part-funded by the coal industry,

509
01:00:58,920 --> 01:01:02,920
he found himself among those under attack from climate campaigners.

510
01:01:02,920 --> 01:01:12,920
British-based corporations are some of the worst climate criminals on the planet.

511
01:01:12,920 --> 01:01:16,920
Shell is based in the UK, right here in London.

512
01:01:16,920 --> 01:01:24,920
We have the right and the duty to take it back into public ownership, dismantle it, break it up, and send its managers to rehabilitation training.

513
01:01:24,920 --> 01:01:29,920
But reasoned debate is not the only casualty in the global warming alarm,

514
01:01:29,920 --> 01:01:34,920
as international public policy bears down on industrial emissions of carbon dioxide,

515
01:01:34,920 --> 01:01:39,920
the developing world is coming under intense pressure not to develop.

516
01:01:42,920 --> 01:01:48,920
I'm no expert on climate change, I'm no scientist, and what I'm going to say next is a great big turn-off.

517
01:01:48,920 --> 01:01:51,920
It's just that. Turn it off!

518
01:01:51,920 --> 01:01:55,920
Anything you don't need, you're not using it.

519
01:01:55,920 --> 01:01:59,920
It's easier than you think to make a difference.

520
01:02:04,920 --> 01:02:11,920
Delegates from around the world are flying into Nairobi for a conference sponsored by the UN to talk about global warming.

521
01:02:13,920 --> 01:02:20,920
Civil servants, professional NGO campaigners, carbon offset fund managers, environmental journalists and others

522
01:02:20,920 --> 01:02:24,920
will discuss every aspect of man-made climate change,

523
01:02:24,920 --> 01:02:30,920
from how to promote solar panels in Africa to the relationship between global warming and sexism.

524
01:02:30,920 --> 01:02:36,920
The conference lasts 10 days, the number of delegates exceeds 6,000.

525
01:02:36,920 --> 01:02:43,920
The billions of dollars invested in climate science means there is a huge constituency of people dependent upon those dollars,

526
01:02:43,920 --> 01:02:47,920
and they will want to see that carry forward. It happens in any bureaucracy.

527
01:02:47,920 --> 01:02:54,920
Where I live, we have a local council global warming officer.

528
01:02:54,920 --> 01:03:07,920
There's a huge tail out there of people who have, in one way or another, been recruited to join this particular bandwagon.

529
01:03:07,920 --> 01:03:14,920
Anybody who then stands up and says, hey, wait a minute, let's look at this coolly and rationally and carefully

530
01:03:14,920 --> 01:03:21,920
and see actually how much merit, how much this stands up, they will be ostracised.

531
01:03:21,920 --> 01:03:29,920
Scientists accustomed to the relative civility and obscurity of academic life suddenly find themselves publicly attacked

532
01:03:29,920 --> 01:03:37,920
if they dare to challenge the theory of man-made global warming, vilified by campaign groups and even within their own universities.

533
01:03:37,920 --> 01:03:42,920
It's the old English saying, if you stand up in the coconut shy, they're going to throw at you.

534
01:03:42,920 --> 01:03:49,920
So I understand that there's going to be some of that, but it gets pretty difficult and pretty nasty and very personal.

535
01:03:49,920 --> 01:03:56,920
And there have been death threats and all sorts of things, so I'm not doing it for my health.

536
01:03:56,920 --> 01:04:05,920
These days, if you are sceptical about the litany around climate change, you're suddenly like as if you're a Holocaust denier.

537
01:04:06,920 --> 01:04:15,920
The environmental movement, really it is a political activist movement, and they have become hugely influential at a global level.

538
01:04:15,920 --> 01:04:19,920
The people got the power. The people got the power.

539
01:04:19,920 --> 01:04:28,920
And every politician is aware of that today. Whether you're on the left, in the middle or the right, you have to pay homage to the environment.

540
01:04:28,920 --> 01:04:32,920
In the past month, the global warming campaign has won a great victory.

541
01:04:32,920 --> 01:04:37,920
The United States government, once a bastion of resistance, has succumbed.

542
01:04:37,920 --> 01:04:40,920
George Bush is now an ally.

543
01:04:40,920 --> 01:04:49,920
Western governments have now embraced the need for international agreements to restrain industrial production in the developed and developing world.

544
01:04:49,920 --> 01:04:54,920
But at what cost? Paul Driesen is a former environmental campaigner.

545
01:04:54,920 --> 01:05:08,920
My big concern with global warming is that the policies being pushed to supposedly prevent global warming are having a disastrous effect on the world's poorest people.

546
01:05:08,920 --> 01:05:12,920
Global warming campaigners say it does no harm to be on the safe side.

547
01:05:12,920 --> 01:05:20,920
Even if the theory of man-made climate change is wrong, we should impose draconian measures to cut carbon emissions just in case.

548
01:05:20,920 --> 01:05:23,920
They call this the precautionary principle.

549
01:05:23,920 --> 01:05:31,920
The precautionary principle is a very interesting beast. It's basically used to promote a particular agenda and ideology.

550
01:05:31,920 --> 01:05:43,920
It's always used in one direction only. It talks about the risks of using a particular technology, fossil fuels, for example, but never about the risks of not using it.

551
01:05:43,920 --> 01:05:47,920
It never talks about the benefits of having that technology.

552
01:05:47,920 --> 01:05:52,920
Anne Muegela is about to cook a meal for her children.

553
01:05:52,920 --> 01:05:58,920
She is one of the two billion people, a third of the world's population, who have no access to electricity.

554
01:05:58,920 --> 01:06:03,920
Instead, they must burn wood or dried animal dung in their homes.

555
01:06:03,920 --> 01:06:08,920
The indoor smoke this creates is the deadliest form of pollution in the world.

556
01:06:09,920 --> 01:06:18,920
According to the World Health Organization, four million children under the age of five die each year from respiratory diseases caused by indoor smoke.

557
01:06:18,920 --> 01:06:23,920
And many millions of women die early from cancer and lung disease for the same reason.

558
01:06:23,920 --> 01:06:33,920
If you were to ask a rural person to define development, they'll tell you, yes, I know I've moved to the next level when I have electricity.

559
01:06:33,920 --> 01:06:40,920
Actually, not having electricity creates such a long chain of problems because the first thing you miss is the light.

560
01:06:40,920 --> 01:06:49,920
So you get that they have to go to sleep earlier because there's no light. There's no reason to stay awake. I mean, you can't talk to each other in darkness.

561
01:06:49,920 --> 01:06:53,920
No refrigeration or modern packaging means that food cannot be kept.

562
01:06:53,920 --> 01:06:58,920
A fire in the hut is too smoky and consumes too much wood to be used as heating.

563
01:06:58,920 --> 01:07:05,920
There is no hot water. We in the West cannot begin to imagine how hard life is without electricity.

564
01:07:05,920 --> 01:07:13,920
The life expectancy of people who live like this is terrifyingly short, their existence impoverished in every way.

565
01:07:16,920 --> 01:07:22,920
A few miles away, the UN is hosting its conference on global warming in its plush gated headquarters.

566
01:07:23,920 --> 01:07:32,920
The gift shop is selling souvenirs of peasant tribal life, while delegates discuss how to promote what are described as sustainable forms of electrical generation.

567
01:07:34,920 --> 01:07:43,920
Africa has coal and Africa has oil, but environmental groups are campaigning against the use of these cheap sources of energy.

568
01:07:44,920 --> 01:07:50,920
Instead, they say Africa and the rest of the developing world should use solar and wind power.

569
01:07:53,920 --> 01:07:58,920
A short drive out of Nairobi, we find our first solar panel.

570
01:07:59,920 --> 01:08:05,920
A Kenyan public health official has brought us to a clinic which serves several villages.

571
01:08:05,920 --> 01:08:14,920
The only electrical implements in the clinic are the electric lights and a refrigerator in which to keep vaccines, medicine and blood samples.

572
01:08:14,920 --> 01:08:18,920
Electricity is provided by two solar panels.

573
01:08:18,920 --> 01:08:21,920
So what can it do successfully?

574
01:08:21,920 --> 01:08:22,920
Lighting.

575
01:08:22,920 --> 01:08:23,920
Lighting only?

576
01:08:23,920 --> 01:08:24,920
Yes.

577
01:08:24,920 --> 01:08:29,920
What happens when you put lighting plus the refrigerator and others? What happens?

578
01:08:29,920 --> 01:08:31,920
It sounds an alarm.

579
01:08:31,920 --> 01:08:33,920
It sounds an alarm?

580
01:08:33,920 --> 01:08:34,920
Yeah.

581
01:08:34,920 --> 01:08:36,920
Can we maybe see that?

582
01:08:36,920 --> 01:08:42,920
The solar panels allow Dr. Samuel Mwangi to use either the lights or the refrigerator, but not both at the same time.

583
01:08:42,920 --> 01:08:45,920
If he does, the electricity shuts down.

584
01:08:46,920 --> 01:08:55,920
Wind and solar power are notoriously unreliable as a source of electricity and are at least three times more expensive than conventional forms of electrical generation.

585
01:08:55,920 --> 01:09:04,920
The question would be how many people in Europe, how many people in the United States are already using that kind of energy and how cheap is it?

586
01:09:04,920 --> 01:09:12,920
You see, if it's expensive for the Europeans, if it's expensive for the Americans, and we are talking about poor Africans,

587
01:09:12,920 --> 01:09:16,920
then we have to think about the cost of electricity.

588
01:09:16,920 --> 01:09:25,920
The rich countries can afford to engage in some luxurious experimentation with other forms of energy, but for us we are still at the stage of survival.

589
01:09:25,920 --> 01:09:33,920
To former environmentalist Paul Driesen, the idea that the world's poorest people should be restricted to using the world's most expensive energy,

590
01:09:33,920 --> 01:09:36,920
is a very important one.

591
01:09:37,920 --> 01:09:48,920
To former environmentalist Paul Driesen, the idea that the world's poorest people should be restricted to using the world's most expensive and inefficient forms of electrical generation,

592
01:09:48,920 --> 01:09:53,920
is the most morally repugnant aspect of the global warming campaign.

593
01:09:54,920 --> 01:09:57,920
Let me make one thing perfectly clear.

594
01:09:57,920 --> 01:10:03,920
If we're telling the third world that they can only have wind and solar power,

595
01:10:03,920 --> 01:10:08,920
what we are really telling them is you cannot have electricity.

596
01:10:09,920 --> 01:10:19,920
The challenge we have when we meet Western environmentalists who say we must engage in use of solar panels and wind energy,

597
01:10:19,920 --> 01:10:23,920
is how we can have Africa industrialized.

598
01:10:24,920 --> 01:10:30,920
Because I don't see how a solar panel is going to power a steel industry.

599
01:10:30,920 --> 01:10:37,920
How a solar panel is going to power maybe some railway train network.

600
01:10:37,920 --> 01:10:41,920
It might work maybe to power a small transistor radio.

601
01:10:44,920 --> 01:10:51,920
I think one of the most pernicious aspects of the modern environmental movement is this romanticization of peasant life.

602
01:10:52,920 --> 01:10:57,920
And the idea that industrial societies are the destroyers of the world.

603
01:10:58,920 --> 01:11:09,920
One clear thing that emerges from the whole environmental debate is the point that there's somebody keen to kill the African dream.

604
01:11:09,920 --> 01:11:11,920
And the African dream is to develop.

605
01:11:12,920 --> 01:11:21,920
The environmental movement has evolved into the strongest force there is for preventing development in the developing countries.

606
01:11:21,920 --> 01:11:27,920
If you're being told don't touch your resource, don't touch your oil, don't touch your coal, that is suicide.

607
01:11:28,920 --> 01:11:30,920
I think it's legitimate for me to call them anti-human.

608
01:11:31,920 --> 01:11:41,920
Like, okay, you don't have to think humans are better than whales or better than owls or whatever if you don't want to.

609
01:11:41,920 --> 01:11:48,920
But surely it is not a good idea to think of humans as sort of being scum.

610
01:11:48,920 --> 01:11:53,920
You know, that it's okay to have hundreds of millions of them go blind or die or whatever.

611
01:11:53,920 --> 01:11:55,920
I just can't relate to that.

612
01:11:56,920 --> 01:12:05,920
The theory of man-made global warming is now so firmly entrenched, the voices of opposition so effectively silenced, it seems invincible.

613
01:12:05,920 --> 01:12:09,920
Untroubled by any contrary evidence, no matter how strong.

614
01:12:10,920 --> 01:12:14,920
The global warming alarm is now beyond reason.

615
01:12:15,920 --> 01:12:19,920
There will still be people who believe that this is the end of the world.

616
01:12:19,920 --> 01:12:32,920
Particularly when you have, for example, the chief scientist of the UK telling people that by the end of the century the only habitable place on the earth will be the Antarctic.

617
01:12:33,920 --> 01:12:40,920
And humanity may survive thanks to some breeding couples who moved to the Antarctic.

618
01:12:40,920 --> 01:12:42,920
I mean, this is hilarious.

619
01:12:42,920 --> 01:12:47,920
It would be hilarious, actually, if it weren't so sad.