1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:04,520 This video is made possible by Curiosity Stream and Nebula. Watch another brand new... 2 00:00:04,799 --> 00:00:10,880 companion video to this one in my ongoing modern conflict series that explains the... 3 00:00:11,240 --> 00:00:17,320 interventions abroad in Syria along with 13 other episodes with nearly five hours of... 4 00:00:17,879 --> 00:00:25,339 covering major recent international conflicts like the Russian war against Ukraine, the... 5 00:00:25,699 --> 00:00:32,859 1990s all of which you can access by signing up for the Curiosity Stream Nebula bundle... 6 00:00:33,140 --> 00:00:35,740 curiositystream.com slash real-life lore 7 00:00:36,539 --> 00:00:40,340 Over his entire 22 year long career as the leader of Russia 8 00:00:40,700 --> 00:00:48,939 Vladimir Putin's primary objectives have been to overturn the end result of the Cold War... 9 00:00:49,620 --> 00:00:51,219 reestablish the Kremlin's 10 00:00:51,219 --> 00:00:58,899 culmination across the shattered pieces of the former Soviet Union and push back agai... 11 00:00:58,899 --> 00:01:02,140 He has used many tools to accomplish these objectives 12 00:01:02,140 --> 00:01:06,379 But none have been greater than Russia's unique and highly valuable 13 00:01:07,140 --> 00:01:13,819 Geology across the vastness of Russia's land stretching from the Baltic Sea in the west... 14 00:01:14,259 --> 00:01:16,259 Moscow possesses and produces 15 00:01:16,980 --> 00:01:23,240 Enormous quantities of natural gas and oil so much so that Russia is currently the world... 16 00:01:23,500 --> 00:01:29,900 exporter of gas and the second largest exporter of oil remaining only behind Saud... 17 00:01:30,100 --> 00:01:36,900 Russia is an energy superpower and it is the sale of these energy resources abroad that... 18 00:01:37,500 --> 00:01:42,200 foundation of the modern Russian state and all of Putin's objectives 19 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:50,079 Including the ongoing war in Ukraine as they provide as much as 40 to 50 percent of the... 20 00:01:50,079 --> 00:01:53,680 And as much as 30 percent of the Russian GDP 21 00:01:53,799 --> 00:02:01,719 This is precisely why the late US Senator John McCain once derided Russia as being... 22 00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:09,719 Masquerading as a country and the gas station sells most of their stuff to Europe half o... 23 00:02:10,199 --> 00:02:15,359 3-4 of their natural gas exports all flow westwards towards Europe 24 00:02:15,359 --> 00:02:22,479 This ultimately means that Russia supplies roughly 35 percent of the European Union's... 25 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:30,719 25 percent of their oil when considering that oil accounts for 36 percent of Europe's to... 26 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:38,039 25% that roughly means that Europe relies on Russian oil and gas for nearly one-fifth o... 27 00:02:38,599 --> 00:02:45,639 Energy needs while Russia relies on European cash for nearly one-third of their entire... 28 00:02:46,039 --> 00:02:48,039 budget and this is 29 00:02:48,519 --> 00:02:50,959 simultaneously Russia's greatest strength and 30 00:02:51,599 --> 00:02:59,319 Russia's greatest weakness every single aggressive action that Putin's Russia has... 31 00:02:59,519 --> 00:03:06,759 To the annexation of Crimea more than eight years ago to the invasion of Georgia 14 ye... 32 00:03:06,879 --> 00:03:11,620 More than 20 years ago is defined by the ever evolving 33 00:03:12,039 --> 00:03:20,079 geopolitical calculus of this strength and weakness and more than anything else the... 34 00:03:20,399 --> 00:03:22,399 Soviet Union is the most 35 00:03:23,079 --> 00:03:29,079 imperative thing to understand about Vladimir Putin's thought processes and strategy and... 36 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:33,560 21st century Cold War between his Russia and the United States 37 00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:41,199 When the Soviet Union suddenly collapsed just over three decades ago the former empire t... 38 00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:44,680 Across one-sixth of the earth's total landmass 39 00:03:45,199 --> 00:03:48,719 splintered into 15 newly independent countries 40 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:56,080 Ranging from tiny ones like Armenia and Estonia to giants like Kazakhstan roughly ... 41 00:03:56,080 --> 00:04:00,159 But the entity that remains centered in Moscow the Russian Federation 42 00:04:00,319 --> 00:04:04,759 The Soviet Union's legal successor state loomed the largest of them all 43 00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:13,159 Towering over the newly independent states like a Titan nearly overnight when compare... 44 00:04:13,439 --> 00:04:19,800 Moscow-based regime in the form of the Russian Federation had lost nearly half of... 45 00:04:20,199 --> 00:04:27,120 with tens of millions of ethnic Russians suddenly fighting themselves outside the... 46 00:04:27,280 --> 00:04:34,879 The area directly ruled from Moscow shrunk in size by a fourth taking 40% of the Soviet ... 47 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:42,280 Industrial capacity along with it the massive Soviet nuclear weapons arsenal suddenly... 48 00:04:43,060 --> 00:04:50,759 1900 warheads stuck in Ukraine unable to be utilized by them because the launch codes... 49 00:04:50,759 --> 00:04:56,759 In Moscow in theory this temporarily made Ukraine the world's third largest nuclear... 50 00:04:56,879 --> 00:05:01,560 But they voluntarily gave them all up to Russia in exchange for 51 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:09,659 Assurances from them the United States and United Kingdom that the existing borders o... 52 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:14,899 Would be respected all of this was pretty bad from the perspective of Moscow 53 00:05:14,899 --> 00:05:20,360 But perhaps the worst thing to come from the dissolution of the Soviet Union for them... 54 00:05:20,680 --> 00:05:22,680 the fracturing of the Empire's land 55 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:28,519 Population or nuclear arsenal, but the fracturing of its geological resources 56 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:34,860 specifically the fracturing of the Soviet Union's once enormous oil and gas industry 57 00:05:34,860 --> 00:05:38,579 Which had been the largest in the world prior to the collapse? 58 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:44,439 Moscow controlled some of the largest oil and gas reserves found anywhere on the planet... 59 00:05:44,960 --> 00:05:52,040 Caspian Sea Central Asia the Volga Urals West Siberia and Far East regions of their huge... 60 00:05:52,400 --> 00:06:01,120 Shipping these resources out by ship to customers around the world was potentially... 61 00:06:01,840 --> 00:06:07,720 Historical weaknesses the lack of easy access to the world's oceans the Soviet Union only 62 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:15,420 Controlled a handful of warm water ports that remained ice-free and easily usable... 63 00:06:15,620 --> 00:06:22,300 Baltic black and Japan sees all of which could be easily blockaded by their primary... 64 00:06:22,780 --> 00:06:30,340 geopolitical rivals in NATO and the United States through the GI UK gap the Strait of... 65 00:06:30,340 --> 00:06:38,240 Straits and the Japanese archipelago in the event of a war with the West the Soviet Na... 66 00:06:38,580 --> 00:06:43,120 Bottled in and contained and so Soviet military doctrine always 67 00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:51,180 Focused on being much more of a land power as a result and this geographically inspired... 68 00:06:51,639 --> 00:06:58,280 Economic planning as well knowing full well these geographic limitations to trading th... 69 00:06:58,319 --> 00:07:04,360 The Soviets built a massive series of pipelines over their vast expanses of land 70 00:07:04,639 --> 00:07:09,959 connecting the energy hungry European economies in the West directly to their huge 71 00:07:10,359 --> 00:07:16,879 Geological formations around the Caspian Volga Urals and West Siberian regions in t... 72 00:07:17,239 --> 00:07:18,879 oil and gas resources 73 00:07:18,879 --> 00:07:25,680 themselves this made the most logical geographic and economic sense for the nati... 74 00:07:26,079 --> 00:07:33,279 Substantial resources of oil and gas around their continent discovered so far are loca... 75 00:07:33,439 --> 00:07:38,719 the North Sea between the UK and Norway the various regions of the former Soviet Union 76 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:45,880 Including Ukraine the Black Sea the Persian Gulf the Eastern Mediterranean and North... 77 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:53,720 Geological coincidence the territory that would eventually evolve into the European... 78 00:07:54,240 --> 00:08:02,280 Hydrocarbon resources and since the Soviet Union was located nearby on the same... 79 00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:03,560 oil and gas 80 00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:08,280 Directly from their massive sources in the East they were the most logical 81 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:13,680 Geographic partner on the docket to choose to buy from regardless of the potential 82 00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:21,840 geopolitical consequences and pressures that could come from Moscow and the Kremlin thu... 83 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:26,660 largest oil and gas producer and as the price of oil skyrocketed throughout the 84 00:08:27,260 --> 00:08:33,399 1970s the revenues that Moscow was gaining from selling them were enormous enough to... 85 00:08:33,940 --> 00:08:35,940 everything the country was doing 86 00:08:35,940 --> 00:08:43,820 Including the massive Soviet arms race with the United States and the newfound confide... 87 00:08:43,820 --> 00:08:46,340 decisions like the invasion of Afghanistan in 88 00:08:46,700 --> 00:08:53,420 1980 but oil and gas are cyclical assets and an economy that is too over reliant on the... 89 00:08:53,500 --> 00:09:01,259 Have a party for so long when oil prices collapsed later in 1986 Moscow's primary... 90 00:09:01,860 --> 00:09:09,719 Evaporated with it the inefficient centrally planned Soviet economy could no longer... 91 00:09:09,819 --> 00:09:13,579 Sales and Moscow's finances became crippled 92 00:09:13,579 --> 00:09:20,259 This was potentially the biggest single factor pushing the Soviet Union towards it... 93 00:09:20,259 --> 00:09:28,259 And once it finally did in 1991 the once united oil and gas industry of the country... 94 00:09:28,700 --> 00:09:35,819 significant amount of the oil and gas reserves around the Caspian Sea Basin were... 95 00:09:36,419 --> 00:09:43,919 Kazakhstan Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan the huge interconnected Soviet era pipeline... 96 00:09:44,399 --> 00:09:51,199 Hydrocarbon fields in Siberia to Europe now had thousands of miles worth of pipes flow... 97 00:09:51,759 --> 00:09:57,319 Ukraine who is now suddenly legally entitled to demand transit fees on oil and gas 98 00:09:57,559 --> 00:10:04,279 headed to Europe from Moscow and with a sudden collapse of communism the formerly... 99 00:10:04,719 --> 00:10:09,259 enterprises remaining within Russia experienced the massive shock of near 100 00:10:09,700 --> 00:10:15,919 Spontaneous privatization the oil and gas industry was the most significant source o... 101 00:10:15,919 --> 00:10:22,019 And now it was divided and in chaos the new Russia was no longer a superpower 102 00:10:22,019 --> 00:10:26,980 And was no longer even really an energy superpower and almost immediately 103 00:10:27,399 --> 00:10:32,259 Western energy companies were diving in on the Soviet Union splintered carcass 104 00:10:32,559 --> 00:10:39,220 Attempting to gather up their assets long before Ukraine took the center stage of th... 105 00:10:39,700 --> 00:10:45,340 Moscow's and the West's focus were each firmly centered upon the area around the... 106 00:10:45,580 --> 00:10:50,559 the collapse of the Soviet Union and the independence of the states around the Casp... 107 00:10:51,059 --> 00:10:55,539 coincided with the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the Gulf War where Saddam Hussein 108 00:10:55,819 --> 00:11:03,080 Nearly managed to grab control over half of the world's known supply of oil around the... 109 00:11:03,400 --> 00:11:10,440 Massive fears in Washington in Europe over their over reliance on Middle Eastern oil... 110 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:17,620 And led the West to begin searching for alternative sources to diversify their... 111 00:11:18,200 --> 00:11:21,840 Independent post-soviet states around the oil and gas rich 112 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:29,980 Caspian for you see the Caspian is the world's largest inland body of water and t... 113 00:11:30,019 --> 00:11:33,659 48 billion barrels of oil and 114 00:11:34,860 --> 00:11:41,700 292 trillion cubic feet worth of natural gas in other words the Caspian Basin is home t... 115 00:11:42,300 --> 00:11:48,060 3% of the world's proven reserves of oil and 4% of its proven reserves of natural gas 116 00:11:48,340 --> 00:11:54,220 Which is significant and most of these significant reserves were all located inside 117 00:11:55,220 --> 00:12:00,620 Of the newly independent states around the sea when combined all four of them control... 118 00:12:02,340 --> 00:12:09,300 16,700 cubic kilometers worth of proven natural gas reserves more than Saudi Arabi... 119 00:12:09,660 --> 00:12:13,920 Of the gas reserves remaining throughout the rest of the new Russian 120 00:12:14,220 --> 00:12:21,340 Federation as the Soviet Union's legal successor state and with the lion's share ... 121 00:12:21,340 --> 00:12:27,899 Still remaining in the year olds in Siberia the Russian Federation naturally inherited... 122 00:12:28,660 --> 00:12:31,620 Soviet oil and gas trade with the European market 123 00:12:31,620 --> 00:12:39,160 It was within Moscow's best interests to maintain as high of a market share in Euro... 124 00:12:39,420 --> 00:12:41,980 outsiders they could from independently entering it 125 00:12:42,940 --> 00:12:44,700 especially the brand-new 126 00:12:44,700 --> 00:12:50,540 Hydrocarbon rich states of the former Soviet Union that they no longer had outright... 127 00:12:50,620 --> 00:12:58,660 Luckily for them the Caspian is located very far inland and very far away from any majo... 128 00:12:58,660 --> 00:13:02,660 and so exporting the hydrocarbon reserves found around it requires 129 00:13:03,379 --> 00:13:10,879 Extremely expensive land-based infrastructure like pipelines or rails to move them towar... 130 00:13:10,919 --> 00:13:17,080 All of the region's oil and gas exports to the West had previously relied on the... 131 00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:22,120 Pipeline and rail network that routed through Russia towards the Black Sea in Europe 132 00:13:22,120 --> 00:13:29,559 Which continued to give Moscow a high degree of influence and control over the Caspian... 133 00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:33,980 despite their official independence and so with an 134 00:13:34,060 --> 00:13:39,120 Understandable desire within the new Caspian states for newfound economic independence 135 00:13:39,300 --> 00:13:44,100 through export routes that went around Russia and with the West's own desire for Caspian 136 00:13:44,420 --> 00:13:49,519 Hydrocarbon supplies and Russia's desire to prevent them a decade of fierce 137 00:13:50,019 --> 00:13:55,420 geopolitical competition throughout Central Asia and the Caucasus ensued between them 138 00:13:55,700 --> 00:14:00,620 Kazakhstan ended up enlisting a consortium of oil companies to build out the Caspian... 139 00:14:01,019 --> 00:14:06,019 Connecting their major oil fields through southern Russia to the Black Sea port of... 140 00:14:06,139 --> 00:14:13,139 Where the oil is then loaded up on a tankers and transported through the Turkish Strait... 141 00:14:13,539 --> 00:14:17,940 Russian oil and gas companies like Transnistria Rosnistria and Luke oil own 142 00:14:18,259 --> 00:14:25,419 44 percent of the shares in this pipeline and it terminates at a Russian controlled port... 143 00:14:25,779 --> 00:14:27,019 Kazakhstan's most 144 00:14:27,019 --> 00:14:32,100 Central lifeline to getting their critical oil and gas resources to the worldwide market 145 00:14:32,579 --> 00:14:34,679 Moscow therefore still controls 146 00:14:35,220 --> 00:14:39,899 significant parts of Kazakhstan's ability to export oil and gas to Europe and 147 00:14:40,100 --> 00:14:46,319 Kazakhstan is even further a member of Russia's own defense and trade unions like... 148 00:14:46,579 --> 00:14:48,579 Organization and the Eurasian Economic Union 149 00:14:49,340 --> 00:14:56,500 Kazakhstan has therefore never really been a threat to Moscow's market in Europe nor he... 150 00:14:56,820 --> 00:15:01,500 Influencing the former Soviet world and if they ever became a threat in the future 151 00:15:01,500 --> 00:15:08,539 There is the implicit threat that since 25 percent of the population of Kazakhstan ar... 152 00:15:08,899 --> 00:15:10,259 in the north 153 00:15:10,259 --> 00:15:16,259 Moscow already has a ready-to-go pretext for invasion to liberate them 154 00:15:16,259 --> 00:15:22,220 But Azerbaijan turned into a completely different story much to the opposition of... 155 00:15:22,220 --> 00:15:26,580 They ended up enlisting the help of a consortium made up almost entirely of 156 00:15:26,940 --> 00:15:33,360 Western energy companies led by British petroleum to help construct their pipeline... 157 00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:38,139 But Azerbaijan's geography made the route that would be selected difficult to choose 158 00:15:38,540 --> 00:15:44,779 routing the pipeline through Russia would have undermined the entire point of securi... 159 00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:50,620 Independent from their influence the United States heavily pressured against routing t... 160 00:15:50,620 --> 00:15:56,100 And Azerbaijan's own ongoing military conflict with Armenia in the West over the... 161 00:15:56,940 --> 00:16:03,779 Eliminated the pipeline from traveling west that only left Georgia a mountainous and... 162 00:16:04,460 --> 00:16:11,899 post-Soviet state with two major separatist areas to route the pipeline through but wi... 163 00:16:12,019 --> 00:16:12,940 Georgia anyway 164 00:16:12,940 --> 00:16:18,180 and by 2005 the Baku Tbilisi-Sehan or BTC pipeline had 165 00:16:18,419 --> 00:16:25,099 Finally been finished the second largest pipeline anywhere in the former Soviet Uni... 166 00:16:25,539 --> 00:16:32,419 Azerbaijan's enormous oil and gas reserves around the Caspian to the Turkish port of... 167 00:16:32,539 --> 00:16:39,620 And ultimately from there by tanker ship to Europe and all completely independent of a... 168 00:16:40,059 --> 00:16:47,379 influence since the pipeline went through Georgia and reduced Western dependence on... 169 00:16:47,419 --> 00:16:52,460 major factor in the American support for Georgia in joining NATO in the early 170 00:16:52,899 --> 00:16:56,820 2000s which would eventually culminate with an invasion from Russia in 171 00:16:57,220 --> 00:17:03,740 2008 and the occupation of their breakaway territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia ... 172 00:17:03,899 --> 00:17:11,559 Georgia has never been allowed into NATO ever since and the Georgian government maintain... 173 00:17:12,159 --> 00:17:19,839 45 billion dollars would later be invested by the West in a series of additional natural... 174 00:17:19,839 --> 00:17:27,200 gas corridor across Turkey Greece Albania the Adriatic Sea and directly into Italy that... 175 00:17:27,519 --> 00:17:30,240 Azerbaijani gas directly to customers in Europe 176 00:17:30,799 --> 00:17:37,319 Specifically designed to further reduce European reliance on Russian gas this syst... 177 00:17:37,559 --> 00:17:41,539 Operational on the final day of 2020 and now because of it 178 00:17:41,799 --> 00:17:48,819 Azerbaijan expects to be able to supply the EU with about ten and a half billion cubic... 179 00:17:49,019 --> 00:17:55,039 Which by 2019 levels is a little more than 2% of the EU's total gas consumption 180 00:17:55,039 --> 00:17:56,639 It may not be a huge amount 181 00:17:56,639 --> 00:18:04,240 But it certainly eats into Russia's overall market share and even more importantly the... 182 00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:08,680 Enough to finance around 60% of their entire government budget 183 00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:16,480 Cementing their own financial and political independence from Moscow for good that... 184 00:18:16,839 --> 00:18:18,680 Azerbaijan a real 185 00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:24,000 Independent nation and one of the biggest fears in the Kremlin is that the Kaspian... 186 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:27,160 formerly all beneath centralized 187 00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:34,880 Soviet control could lead to even more regional defections from Moscow and furthe... 188 00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:43,080 for decades Turkmenistan the country that today has the sixth largest proven reserve... 189 00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:50,920 idea of the trans Kaspian pipeline with Western energy companies if ever realized... 190 00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:57,960 Enormous gas fields in the east and move westwards beneath the Kaspian Sea and link... 191 00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:00,320 Pipeline infrastructure towards Europe 192 00:19:00,320 --> 00:19:07,300 It's projected that if ever built it would be capable of transporting some 30 billion mo... 193 00:19:07,759 --> 00:19:12,960 Towards the European Union or nearly 7% of their entire consumption 194 00:19:13,279 --> 00:19:20,700 Obviously this would almost certainly cut into Russia's own shares of gas supplies t... 195 00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:26,519 to the tune of billions of dollars and so they've been continuously opposed to it fo... 196 00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:33,300 Moscow insists that any pipeline beneath the Kaspian Sea would be unacceptable for... 197 00:19:33,300 --> 00:19:40,640 And they've taken the legal position that any potential pipeline project across or benea... 198 00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:48,660 Five of the states that share a coastline there including themselves, which they'll... 199 00:19:48,980 --> 00:19:50,779 only an idea and 200 00:19:50,779 --> 00:19:59,060 Turkmenistan continues instead to pipe more than half of their gas to the east towards... 201 00:19:59,060 --> 00:20:02,140 Moscow and not yet an existential threat 202 00:20:02,500 --> 00:20:06,400 Vladimir Putin came to power as the president of Russia in May of 203 00:20:06,779 --> 00:20:14,220 2000 just over eight years after the collapse of the Soviet Union and he certainly... 204 00:20:14,579 --> 00:20:21,059 immense power that oil and gas could give the Russian state although allegedly highly... 205 00:20:21,140 --> 00:20:25,559 He wrote his doctoral thesis at the st. Petersburg mining university in 206 00:20:26,259 --> 00:20:30,579 1997 and after assuming the presidency Putin began running the Russian Federation 207 00:20:31,100 --> 00:20:34,940 Much like the CEO of an energy company would thus 208 00:20:34,940 --> 00:20:42,259 It's far more helpful to think of modern Russia as more of an energy company that... 209 00:20:42,299 --> 00:20:45,019 State armed with nuclear weapons 210 00:20:45,059 --> 00:20:53,619 He led the state-owned oil company Rosnaya to produce 40% of Russia's total oil while... 211 00:20:54,379 --> 00:21:01,900 Similarly the Russian state also controls more than half of the shares in Gazprom th... 212 00:21:02,339 --> 00:21:07,740 12% of the entire world's natural gas supply the CEOs of both companies are 213 00:21:08,099 --> 00:21:15,920 Long-time friends of Putin dating back to the 1990s before he assumed the presidency and... 214 00:21:16,099 --> 00:21:20,460 Putin was incredibly fortunate because the international prices of oil and gas 215 00:21:20,819 --> 00:21:28,339 began to skyrocket shortly after he assumed office and Russian financial power was onc... 216 00:21:28,620 --> 00:21:29,460 between 217 00:21:29,460 --> 00:21:36,500 2000 when Putin first took office and 2012 the value of Russia's annual oil and gas... 218 00:21:36,779 --> 00:21:41,779 sevenfold from only 53 billion dollars in 2000 to 219 00:21:43,259 --> 00:21:45,900 351 billion dollars in 2012 220 00:21:46,579 --> 00:21:52,579 Consequently Putin used these funds to dramatically increase the annual budget of... 221 00:21:53,180 --> 00:22:00,039 ninefold from just nine point two billion dollars to eighty one point four billion... 222 00:22:00,339 --> 00:22:03,420 in addition to paying off the Soviet Union's entire 223 00:22:03,779 --> 00:22:09,259 Outstanding debt and freeing up his ambitions across the rest of the post-soviet world 224 00:22:09,860 --> 00:22:17,060 Outside of Central Asia one of the biggest problems for Putin's goals were the old... 225 00:22:17,300 --> 00:22:23,640 hydrocarbon resources to market in Europe the Brotherhood network through Ukraine and th... 226 00:22:23,940 --> 00:22:29,420 Belarus remained an effective puppet state of the Kremlin and so the Northern Lights... 227 00:22:29,420 --> 00:22:33,700 But Ukraine was very different as late as 2005 228 00:22:34,740 --> 00:22:38,539 80% of Russia's oil and gas exports to Europe were still all 229 00:22:39,060 --> 00:22:46,100 concentrated through the Brotherhood network across Ukraine because that network simply... 230 00:22:46,300 --> 00:22:50,340 None of this mattered when Ukraine and Russia were all part of the same country 231 00:22:50,340 --> 00:22:55,660 But now that they weren't it mattered a ton and it began mattering even more after 232 00:22:56,060 --> 00:23:00,940 2005 following Ukraine's Orange Revolution and the rise to power of the pro-western 233 00:23:01,340 --> 00:23:07,660 Viktor Yushchenko as president Russia demanded that Ukraine transfer the ownersh... 234 00:23:07,940 --> 00:23:15,620 Brotherhood pipeline network to them which was staunchly refused by Yushchenko's new... 235 00:23:15,860 --> 00:23:22,580 Ukraine still relied on Russian natural gas imports for most of their own consumption ... 236 00:23:23,019 --> 00:23:24,660 2006 and 2009 237 00:23:24,660 --> 00:23:31,019 Russia strategically penalized Ukraine and applied political pressure by temporarily... 238 00:23:31,420 --> 00:23:34,460 Exactly when they needed them the most and in both instances 239 00:23:35,220 --> 00:23:42,380 Moscow accused the Ukrainians of siphoning off gas traveling through the pipes that w... 240 00:23:42,860 --> 00:23:48,860 Ukraine was becoming an unreliable bridge for their pipelines to Europe and alternative... 241 00:23:49,219 --> 00:23:51,219 Like Yamal through Belarus and Poland 242 00:23:51,299 --> 00:23:58,299 Turk stream and bluestream beneath the Black Sea directly to Turkey and most... 243 00:23:58,299 --> 00:24:05,500 at the cost of 10 and 11 billion dollars each respectively beneath the Baltic Sea feedin... 244 00:24:05,699 --> 00:24:11,859 Russia's single largest oil and gas customer and Germany was only increasing their... 245 00:24:12,179 --> 00:24:18,099 2011 after a tsunami struck the Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan and sparked t... 246 00:24:18,299 --> 00:24:22,759 Since Chernobyl the German government took the decision to gradually phase out all 247 00:24:23,179 --> 00:24:29,699 17 of their own nuclear reactors that in 2011 produced a quarter of Germany's entire... 248 00:24:29,819 --> 00:24:36,539 The final three were theoretically scheduled to come offline at the end of 2022 and to... 249 00:24:37,099 --> 00:24:40,579 Germany began importing even more gas from Russia 250 00:24:41,179 --> 00:24:45,339 Increasing the value of Moscow's leverage over them by 2010 251 00:24:45,339 --> 00:24:49,019 The Ukrainian president was no longer the pro-western Viktor Yushchenko 252 00:24:49,019 --> 00:24:56,919 But the pro-russian Viktor Yanukovych and this was important because huge discoverie... 253 00:24:56,919 --> 00:25:03,819 By various energy companies that suddenly showed Ukraine had proven natural gas... 254 00:25:04,099 --> 00:25:10,699 Trillion cubic meters and they could potentially be as high as 5.4 trillion cub... 255 00:25:11,100 --> 00:25:19,019 Largely focused in rich geological deposits around offshore Crimea the Sea of Azov the... 256 00:25:19,259 --> 00:25:26,860 Rift in the northeast where more than 80% of those 1.1 trillion cubic meters worth of... 257 00:25:27,340 --> 00:25:34,059 These discoveries in the early 2010s suddenly revealed that Ukraine held the second larg... 258 00:25:34,420 --> 00:25:38,940 proven reserves of natural gas in Europe only behind Norway's 259 00:25:39,779 --> 00:25:46,140 1.53 trillion cubic meters through a long series of gas pipelines stretching across ... 260 00:25:46,259 --> 00:25:53,660 Norway has used those reserves to become the second largest exporter of gas to Europe o... 261 00:25:54,340 --> 00:25:56,340 19% of the EU's total supply 262 00:25:56,820 --> 00:26:03,059 so Ukraine with potentially as much as three and a half times more natural gas than Nor... 263 00:26:03,259 --> 00:26:11,299 With one of the world's largest pipeline networks from the Soviet era already built... 264 00:26:11,659 --> 00:26:18,019 easily all of a sudden become an enormous provider of natural gas to Europe and cut... 265 00:26:18,299 --> 00:26:23,299 hundreds of billions of dollars into Russia's biggest market 266 00:26:23,740 --> 00:26:29,059 Moreover Ukraine's gas infrastructure also includes storage sites capable of holding... 267 00:26:29,059 --> 00:26:36,299 31 billion cubic meters worth of gas and they have been severely underutilized for decad... 268 00:26:36,619 --> 00:26:39,059 European Union can currently only store 269 00:26:39,700 --> 00:26:44,259 100 billion cubic meters and thus if Ukraine were to ever join the EU 270 00:26:44,259 --> 00:26:48,159 They would increase their gas storage capabilities by a third and thus 271 00:26:48,740 --> 00:26:53,099 severely reduce the ability of Moscow to pressure European governments during the... 272 00:26:53,619 --> 00:27:00,659 Precisely when they need their gas the most the only problems for Ukraine at the time... 273 00:27:00,659 --> 00:27:06,699 Equipment to really go after any of these reserves and their president at the time w... 274 00:27:06,699 --> 00:27:10,099 So the fear in Moscow was not yet on high alert 275 00:27:10,219 --> 00:27:15,019 But those problems were being rapidly solved in September of 2011 276 00:27:15,019 --> 00:27:21,859 The Ukrainian government signed a deal with Exxon Mobil to explore shale gas reserves... 277 00:27:21,859 --> 00:27:29,899 They signed another deal worth 10 billion dollars with Shell to explore the Yuzhivsk... 278 00:27:29,899 --> 00:27:37,740 In November they signed another 10 billion dollar deal with Chevron to explore the... 279 00:27:38,099 --> 00:27:43,019 Western energy companies were rapidly moving in to unlock Ukraine's natural gas potential 280 00:27:43,019 --> 00:27:47,059 Just as they had around the Caspian Sea a decade previously 281 00:27:47,220 --> 00:27:54,500 And then all of a sudden early on in February of the next year in 2014 Ukraine itself... 282 00:27:54,980 --> 00:28:00,599 pro-western political revolution the pro-russian Ukrainian president at the tim... 283 00:28:00,859 --> 00:28:05,500 Association agreement with the European Union suddenly declined at the last moment 284 00:28:05,740 --> 00:28:11,779 Paid for by a last-minute offer from Putin for 30% cheaper gas prices to his country ... 285 00:28:12,539 --> 00:28:16,619 15-billion dollar aid package Kiev erupted in revolution 286 00:28:17,299 --> 00:28:24,460 Yanukovych's regime was toppled as he fled to Russia and a new very pro-western regime r... 287 00:28:24,899 --> 00:28:29,220 Suddenly Ukraine almost overnight transformed into the single biggest 288 00:28:29,940 --> 00:28:36,740 Existential threat to Russia's gas monopoly in Europe and Putin the energy CEO of Russ... 289 00:28:37,019 --> 00:28:41,220 Tolerate that threat backed up by the high prices of oil and gas at the time 290 00:28:41,299 --> 00:28:48,620 Putin ordered the first invasion of Ukraine Russian troops showed up in Crimea and... 291 00:28:48,900 --> 00:28:54,100 significant amount of Ukraine's EEZ and potential offshore gas reserves and at the... 292 00:28:54,220 --> 00:29:01,019 Russian soldiers began intervening on the side of pro-russian separatists in the... 293 00:29:01,019 --> 00:29:08,299 Exists directly on the Dnieper Donetsk rift with the Yuzhivskaya field that Shell had... 294 00:29:08,379 --> 00:29:13,259 The year before Putin may have justified these attacks on Ukraine as the so-called 295 00:29:13,899 --> 00:29:17,659 Liberation of Crimea and the Donbass areas Russian speaking minorities 296 00:29:17,659 --> 00:29:24,619 But it also didn't hurt that the attacks eliminated access to a lot of Ukraine's... 297 00:29:24,899 --> 00:29:30,139 Gas reserves in the process by the end of the year Exxon Shell and chevron had all 298 00:29:30,500 --> 00:29:36,859 Abandoned their projects in Ukraine citing the new risky political environment and... 299 00:29:37,179 --> 00:29:41,979 Kneecapped its greatest threat to the domination of the European gas market 300 00:29:41,979 --> 00:29:44,839 But although this objective was technically successful 301 00:29:45,339 --> 00:29:52,339 Russia's finances still suffered greatly the price of oil and gas began to collapse jus... 302 00:29:52,379 --> 00:29:58,299 Western sanctions began targeting specific Russian oil and gas projects that required... 303 00:29:58,699 --> 00:30:02,779 Like the Bajonov formation in Siberia and Sakhalin in the Arctic 304 00:30:02,779 --> 00:30:04,779 But over the year since 2014 305 00:30:04,940 --> 00:30:12,579 Russia has retained its stranglehold over the European oil and gas market and their... 306 00:30:12,579 --> 00:30:18,220 As a result after the kovat 19 financial crash in March and April of 2020 the price... 307 00:30:18,619 --> 00:30:20,740 plummeted so low that it reached negative 308 00:30:21,500 --> 00:30:26,259 $37.62 a barrel but ever since then oil and gas prices have been 309 00:30:26,619 --> 00:30:31,460 Continuously climbing back to their highest levels seen in a decade and the price of oil 310 00:30:32,019 --> 00:30:36,220 Finally recovered to its 2014 era levels by February of 311 00:30:36,940 --> 00:30:41,620 2022 the very same month that Vladimir Putin decided to launch his full-scale 312 00:30:42,299 --> 00:30:44,180 invasion across Ukraine 313 00:30:44,180 --> 00:30:50,220 Moscow always always takes riskier foreign policy decisions when oil and gas prices a... 314 00:30:50,420 --> 00:30:54,500 Dating back to Crimea Georgia and even Afghanistan in the Soviet era 315 00:30:54,500 --> 00:31:00,660 So this shouldn't have really come as much of a surprise and now more than three months... 316 00:31:00,740 --> 00:31:02,779 Putin's war aims are quite clear 317 00:31:02,779 --> 00:31:09,460 He is attempting to conquer and occupy the Donbass region and Harkov along with... 318 00:31:10,100 --> 00:31:14,300 Transforming what remains of Ukraine into a landlocked state if he is successful 319 00:31:14,779 --> 00:31:20,660 Ukraine will be financially crippled with the loss of all of her ports and ability to... 320 00:31:20,860 --> 00:31:26,220 The loss of nearly all of her proven reserves of natural gas and the loss of nearly all ... 321 00:31:26,220 --> 00:31:29,100 Which is also mostly located in the Donbass 322 00:31:29,459 --> 00:31:32,179 This is a war over resources 323 00:31:32,500 --> 00:31:38,219 Russia's desire to maintain their monopoly in Europe at all costs and Putin's own... 324 00:31:38,859 --> 00:31:46,299 obsession to reassert Russia's influence over the former Soviet Union and return Russia ... 325 00:31:46,379 --> 00:31:52,879 World power Putin has argued that Russians and Ukrainians are the same people but by... 326 00:31:52,879 --> 00:31:58,359 He has severely miscalculated and he is almost certain to fail all of these big 327 00:31:58,719 --> 00:31:59,919 overarching objectives 328 00:31:59,919 --> 00:32:05,799 Putin may conquer Ukrainian land and cripple Ukraine's ability to ever be an economic... 329 00:32:05,799 --> 00:32:13,359 But he's also committed the single greatest act in history of missing the forest for t... 330 00:32:14,279 --> 00:32:19,519 Especially Russian oil and gas does not have very much time left in this world 331 00:32:19,719 --> 00:32:26,719 Even before the invasion the European Union had targets of becoming a completely carbo... 332 00:32:27,079 --> 00:32:34,480 Less than 28 years from now which already established a 28 year expiration date on... 333 00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:36,960 largest source of government revenues 334 00:32:37,279 --> 00:32:42,940 Perhaps Putin considered this before attacking that he may as well have invaded... 335 00:32:42,940 --> 00:32:46,000 Rather than later when he wouldn't but now that he has 336 00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:51,000 Europe is likely to push up their alternative energy resources at a much faster pace 337 00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:56,940 Both for the climate and now for energy security France is building new nuclear... 338 00:32:57,160 --> 00:33:04,559 Germany is debating keeping theirs online for longer the United States is dramatically... 339 00:33:04,839 --> 00:33:12,319 exports to the continent the Baltic states have already ended all of their Russian oi... 340 00:33:12,359 --> 00:33:14,960 Ban Russian oil imports by the end of the year 341 00:33:15,519 --> 00:33:21,759 Germany has canceled the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that would have doubled their gas... 342 00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:25,680 removing Russia's gas imports entirely within a few years 343 00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:32,319 Russia's power is oil and gas but oil and gas are going to grow less and less 344 00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:40,039 important throughout this century and their primary market in Europe that provides... 345 00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:42,200 Quickly drying up 346 00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:45,559 Russia needs Europe more than Europe needs Russia 347 00:33:45,559 --> 00:33:50,839 The Russians may be able to pivot with new pipelines and LNG exports of their own to... 348 00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:54,200 Turkey India and the poorer countries of the former Soviet Union 349 00:33:54,519 --> 00:34:01,799 But it's unlikely that they'll be able to make up the difference there with Europe... 350 00:34:01,879 --> 00:34:07,240 Russia's huge geologic sources and so they will simply not be as economically... 351 00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:14,199 Russia doesn't have any pipelines connecting to China yet from their massive gas fields... 352 00:34:14,280 --> 00:34:21,159 The same ones that are currently supplying Europe building out new pipelines to China... 353 00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:27,559 time consuming and ultimately China will be the one in the better economic position to... 354 00:34:28,099 --> 00:34:34,599 Discounted gas from a Russia that can't sell anything to Europe and thus oil and gas 355 00:34:34,839 --> 00:34:36,839 May be Russia's greatest strength 356 00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:43,880 But it's also Russia's greatest liability and if Moscow proves unable to properly pivot... 357 00:34:44,039 --> 00:34:49,079 That weakness will almost certainly cripple them for the rest of the 21st century 358 00:34:49,319 --> 00:34:54,519 Everything that Putin's Russia does revolves around the geology of the former Soviet Union 359 00:34:54,679 --> 00:34:58,059 Just take a look at this graph which charts oil and gas prices since 1946 360 00:34:59,019 --> 00:35:06,860 And consider the major events of modern Russian history in the 60s and early 70s t... 361 00:35:06,940 --> 00:35:15,420 the Soviet Union exploded in power and confidence and invaded Afghanistan in 1980... 362 00:35:15,579 --> 00:35:22,539 In 1991 the country collapsed throughout the 90s Russia was stagnant in 2008 Russia... 363 00:35:22,619 --> 00:35:30,059 2014 Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea during the second half of the 2010s... 364 00:35:30,139 --> 00:35:35,179 In Syria and the central African republic and finally here Russia invaded Ukraine 365 00:35:35,420 --> 00:35:43,019 The relationship between Russia's geology and geography on one side and her ability and... 366 00:35:43,099 --> 00:35:50,139 Are directly related but unfortunately if I made videos covering the wars and conflict... 367 00:35:50,299 --> 00:35:58,219 Their inherently violent and controversial nature and details would mean that they wo... 368 00:35:58,539 --> 00:36:04,859 YouTube's algorithm wouldn't promote them to you and there's simply no way that you wou... 369 00:36:05,019 --> 00:36:11,659 That's why instead I created yet another full-length companion video to this one in... 370 00:36:11,819 --> 00:36:19,900 That's about the same length as this video that covers the entire course and explanat... 371 00:36:20,059 --> 00:36:27,500 And uploaded it directly to nebula which as you've probably heard by now is home to to... 372 00:36:27,740 --> 00:36:35,500 Like my entire modern conflict series with 13 other full-length videos with nearly five... 373 00:36:35,660 --> 00:36:41,500 That you can go and watch right now including these videos covering the events of Russia... 374 00:36:41,660 --> 00:36:46,059 Leading up to the events we've seen in 2022 the russian invasion of georgia in 375 00:36:46,059 --> 00:36:53,420 2008 the russian invasions of chechnya in the 1990s and the soviet invasion of afghanist... 376 00:36:53,820 --> 00:37:00,860 Of course the reason why all of these videos are only available on nebula is because th... 377 00:37:00,940 --> 00:37:04,779 And would never be viewed here because of the way that this site works 378 00:37:05,099 --> 00:37:10,380 On the other hand nebula is a different platform without an algorithm and without ... 379 00:37:10,700 --> 00:37:18,780 It's just a platform about great and unique content made by great and independent... 380 00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:26,059 Exclusive bonus projects from other creators. You probably already know like real... 381 00:37:26,380 --> 00:37:32,140 Multiple hour-long plus documentaries from whenever productions and half as interesti... 382 00:37:32,380 --> 00:37:38,380 The best way to get access to nebula and all of this incredible content is definitely... 383 00:37:38,539 --> 00:37:42,059 Curiosity stream and nebula bundle deal and with its current sales price 384 00:37:42,220 --> 00:37:50,220 It's less than 15 dollars a year to get full access to both sites and curiosity stream ... 385 00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:53,200 Definitely enjoy as well like afghanistan 1979 386 00:37:54,300 --> 00:38:02,539 An hour-long documentary focusing on the entire soviet invasion of afghanistan from... 387 00:38:02,539 --> 00:38:06,780 Of the time like mikhail gorbachev and the wife of iran's final shah 388 00:38:07,019 --> 00:38:14,460 If you want to see a documentary explaining in depth the historical trend of russian... 389 00:38:14,540 --> 00:38:18,780 Decisions then this is the documentary for you to go and watch right now 390 00:38:19,019 --> 00:38:25,019 I really can't recommend it enough and I genuinely don't know about a better deal t... 391 00:38:25,260 --> 00:38:27,900 You get two streaming sites both with content 392 00:38:27,980 --> 00:38:34,060 You'll actually watch and all for less than 15 dollars a year at the current sales price 393 00:38:34,299 --> 00:38:41,179 But what's more signing up will actually help countless independent educational creators... 394 00:38:41,340 --> 00:38:46,059 So, please make sure to do so by clicking this button that's here on screen right now 395 00:38:46,219 --> 00:38:49,179 Which will take you directly to curiosity stream.com 396 00:38:49,500 --> 00:38:55,259 Real life lore to sign up or by following the link that's down below in the description ... 397 00:38:55,579 --> 00:38:57,579 Thank you so much for watching