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As the climate crisis worsens, too many people are swinging from denial straight to despair.

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But we should not lose hope.

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Humanity has enormous resources under its command, and by applying them wisely, we can

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still prevent ecological cataclysm.

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Let's talk numbers.

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What would it cost to prevent catastrophic climate change?

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Would we have to commit 50% of our total budget?

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30%?

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10%?

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Naturally enough, no one knows for sure.

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My team and I have spent weeks pouring over various reports and academic papers, living

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in a cloud of numbers.

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But while the models behind the numbers are decently complex, the bottom line should

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share us up.

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Most experts converge on the number 2%.

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If humanity increases our annual investment in clean technologies and infrastructure, by

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around 2% of global GDP, that should be enough to prevent catastrophic climate change.

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If you want to see how experts got to that number, you are welcome to visit the

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sapient ship website.

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The kind of course argue endlessly about the exact number, tweaking the models this way

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and that way.

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But we should look at the big picture.

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The crucial news is that the price tag of preventing the apocalypse is in the low-single

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digits of annual global GDP.

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Even the more pessimistic models generally estimate it at below 5%.

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In most models say it requires investing only an additional 2% of global GDP in the right

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places.

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And note the word investing.

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We are not talking about burning piles of banknotes in some huge sacrifice to the

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spirit of the earth.

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We are talking about making investments in new technologies and infrastructure such as advanced

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batteries.

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For other technologies to store solar energy and updated power grids to distribute it.

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These investments will create lots of new jobs and economic opportunities and are likely

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to be economically profitable in the long run, in part by reducing health-corresponding

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features and saving millions of people from sickness caused by air pollution.

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In addition, since all and gas often prop up autocratic and militaristic regimes, reducing

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our dependence on fossil fuels will be a huge boon to democracy and to peace.

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All this can be translated into a concrete political plan of action.

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We have learned in recent years to define our goal in terms of one number.

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One point five degrees Celsius.

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We can define the means to do this with another number.

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Two percent.

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Increase investment in clean technologies and infrastructure by two percentage points of global

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GDP above 2020 levels.

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Of course, unlike the one point five Celsius figure which is a scientifically robust threshold,

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the two percent figure represents only a rough guesTIMATE.

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It should be understood as a ballpark figure that can help to frame the kind of political

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project humanity requires.

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It tells us that preventing catastrophic climate change is a totally feasible project.

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Even though it would obviously cost a lot of money.

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Since global GDP in 2020 was about 85 trillion US dollars, we are talking about a number

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around 1.7 trillion US dollars.

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But that's still just to percent.

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This means that to save the environment we don't need to completely derail the economy

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or to abandon the achievements of modern civilization.

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We just need to get our priorities right.

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Combating to percent of renewable GDP is far from the whole story.

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It won't solve all our ecological problems such as oceans,

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bringing with plastic or the continued loss of biodiversity.

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And even to prevent catastrophic climate change, we'll need to make sure that the funds are invested

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in the right places and that the new investments don't cause their own negative ecological

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social fallout.

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We will also need to change some of our behaviors and ways of thinking from what we eat

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to how it rava.

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None of that will be easy.

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But that's exactly why we have politicians.

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Their job is to deal with the hard stuff.

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And politicians are actually very skilled at shifting to percent of resources from here

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to there.

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It's what they do all the time.

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The difference between the policies of right wing and left wing parties often amounts

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to a few percentage points of GDP.

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When faced by a major crisis, politicians swiftly shift far more resources to fight it.

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For example, in 1945 the US spent about 36 percent of its GDP on winning the second world war.

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During the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the US government spent about 3.5 percent of GDP

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to save financial institutions that were deemed too big to fail.

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Maybe human kind should also treat the Amazon rainforest as too big to fail.

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Let's try a thought experiment.

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Given the current price of clear-ed rainforest land in South America and the size of the

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Amazon rainforest, buying the olive it in order to protect local forests, biodiversity

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and human communities from destructive business interests would cost about $800 billion

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or a one of payment of less than 1 percent of global GDP.

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In just the first nine months of 2020, governments around the world announced stimulus measures

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worth nearly 14 percent of global GDP to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic.

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If citizens press them hard enough, politicians can do the same to deal with the ecological

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crisis.

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So can investment banks and pension funds.

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In fact, the US dollar is a $5.5 billion dollar.

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What's the point of having a pension if you don't have a future?

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At present, most business and governments are unwilling to make the additional 2 percent

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investment necessary to prevent catastrophic climate change.

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Where does the money go instead?

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Well, every two years approximately 2.4 percent of global GDP is spent on food that goes

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to waste.

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Governments also spend about $500 billion dollars annually on, wait for it?

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Direct subsidies for fossil fuels.

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That means that every 3.5 years, governments ride a nice fed check for an amount equivalent

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to 2 percent of annual global GDP and gift it to the fossil fuel industry.

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And it gets worse.

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When you factor in the social and environmental costs, the fossil fuel industry causes,

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but isn't asked to pay for the value of these subsidies actually reaches a staggering

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7 percent of annual global GDP.

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Now consider tax evasion.

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It's estimated that money hidden by the wealthy in tax havens is worth around 10 percent

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of global GDP.

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Every year, another 1.4 trillion dollars in profits is stashed of shore by corporations,

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which is equal to 1.6 percent of global GDP.

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To prevent the apocalypse, we'll probably need to impose some new taxes,

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but why not start with collecting the old ones?

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Such examples can be multiplied, but you get the picture.

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The money is there.

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Of course, collecting taxes, stopping food wasteage and slashing subsidies is easier said

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than done, especially when faced by some of the most powerful lobbies in the world.

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But it doesn't require a miracle.

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It just requires the term and organization.

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So we shouldn't succumb to the fetism.

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Whenever someone says, it's too late.

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The apocalypse is here.

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Reply, now we can stop it with just 2 percent.

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And when COP27 conveys in Egypt in November 2022, we should tell the attending leaders

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that it's not enough to make vague future pledges about 1.5 degrees Celsius.

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We want them to take out their pens and sign a check for 2 percent of annual global GDP.

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Thank you.