1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:03,000 Great to have you at the World Government Summit. 2 00:00:03,000 --> 00:00:17,000 We have a full house ready to listen to your thought about the world, about yourself,... 3 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:22,000 You are a mentor, but today you are a mentor for 4,000 people. 4 00:00:22,000 --> 00:00:29,000 Before we start our session, I would like just to play a video, then I'll ask you a... 5 00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:37,000 I studied the 10 most powerful empires over the last 500 years and the last 3 reserve... 6 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:45,000 It took me through the rise and decline of the Dutch Empire and the Gilder, the Briti... 7 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:50,000 the rise and early decline in the United States Empire and the Dollar, 8 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:55,000 and the decline and rise of the Chinese Empire and its currencies, 9 00:00:55,000 --> 00:01:05,000 as well as the rise and decline of the Spanish, German, French, Indian, Japanese,... 10 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:11,000 along with their significant conflicts, as measured in this chart. 11 00:01:11,000 --> 00:01:21,000 To understand China's patterns better, I also studied the rise and fall of Chinese... 12 00:01:21,000 --> 00:01:28,000 Because looking at all these measures at once can be confusing, I'll focus on the four m... 13 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:32,000 the Dutch, British, US and Chinese. 14 00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:36,000 You'll quickly notice the pattern. 15 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:39,000 Now let's simplify the form a bit. 16 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:49,000 As you can see, they transpired in overlapping cycles that lasted about 250... 17 00:01:49,000 --> 00:01:57,000 Typically, these transitions have been periods of great conflict because leading... 18 00:01:57,000 --> 00:02:01,000 So how am I measuring an empire's power? 19 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:04,000 In this study, I used eight metrics. 20 00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:10,000 Each country's measure of total power is derived by averaging them together. 21 00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:22,000 They are education, inventiveness and technology development, competitiveness in... 22 00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:32,000 military strength, the power of their financial center for capital markets, and ... 23 00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:39,000 Because these powers are measurable, we can see how strong each country is now, was in... 24 00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:43,000 and whether they're rising or declining. 25 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:51,000 By examining the sequences from many countries, we can see how a typical cycle... 26 00:02:51,000 --> 00:03:04,000 And because the wiggles can be confusing, we can simplify it a bit to focus on the patt... 27 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:17,000 As you can see, better education typically leads to increased innovation and technolo... 28 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:25,000 You can also see that these forces then declined in a similar order, reinforcing e... 29 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:33,000 Let's now look at the typical sequence of events going on inside a country that... 30 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:45,000 In a nutshell, the big cycle typically begins after a major conflict, often a war,... 31 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:52,000 Because no one wants to challenge this power, a period of peace and prosperity typically... 32 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:58,000 As people get used to this peace and prosperity, they increasingly bet on it... 33 00:03:58,000 --> 00:04:03,000 They borrow money to do that, which eventually leads to a financial bubble. 34 00:04:03,000 --> 00:04:14,000 The empire's share of trade grows, and when most transactions are conducted in its... 35 00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:26,000 At the same time, this increased prosperity distributes wealth unevenly, so the wealth... 36 00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:41,000 Eventually, the financial bubble bursts, which leads to the printing of money, an... 37 00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:44,000 This can happen peacefully or as a civil war. 38 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:54,000 While the empire struggles with this internal conflict, its power diminishes relative to... 39 00:04:54,000 --> 00:05:07,000 When a new rising power gets strong enough to compete with the dominant power that is... 40 00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:13,000 Out of these internal and external wars come new winners and losers. 41 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:21,000 Then the winners get together to create the New World Order, and the cycle begins again. 42 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:25,000 Beautiful video, very short, insightful. 43 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:34,000 And let me start by, in your book you talked about five forces changing world order. 44 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:37,000 What are they? 45 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:55,000 Well, yeah, I learned in my lifetime, I'm a practical guy who has to invest in the... 46 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:57,000 I could tell you many stories like that. 47 00:05:57,000 --> 00:06:07,000 So there are three things that are happening now in our lifetimes that didn't happen... 48 00:06:07,000 --> 00:06:10,000 And then there were two others I paid a lot of attention to. 49 00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:20,000 So first, the amount of spending more than we're earning, creating a lot of debt, and... 50 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:23,000 What is the value of money? 51 00:06:23,000 --> 00:06:25,000 What is debt money? 52 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:27,000 Okay, what do we use as money? 53 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:28,000 How does that work? 54 00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:38,000 The second is the amount of internal conflict between the left and the right, the rich a... 55 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:48,000 By any of the measures, you can see I like to use statistics, there's the greatest... 56 00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:54,000 Third is external conflict, the great power conflict. 57 00:06:54,000 --> 00:07:03,000 In other words, when you have two great empires, two or more, that are comparable ... 58 00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:06,000 Those didn't happen in our lifetimes, but they happened before. 59 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:09,000 Those three drew my attention. 60 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:16,000 When I studied history, I also saw the fourth really becoming apparent, which is acts of... 61 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:27,000 Interesting, acts of nature, droughts, floods, and pandemics have killed more peo... 62 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:29,000 So I saw that. 63 00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:39,000 And then what was apparent, of course, through technology is number five, which i... 64 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:45,000 So those five factors, those five forces drive just about everything. 65 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:47,000 And so that's really my lens. 66 00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:54,000 And in order to see that, what is the rise and decline of currencies and all of this ... 67 00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:57,000 But those are the five. 68 00:07:57,000 --> 00:08:05,000 You looked at the pattern of the past 500 years, the rise and fall of civilization,... 69 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:13,000 where we know that we are in an interesting time in human civilization. 70 00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:15,000 The world is changing. 71 00:08:15,000 --> 00:08:18,000 We live in the most exciting time. 72 00:08:18,000 --> 00:08:22,000 We know that the next 500 years will be different. 73 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:25,000 The money will be different. 74 00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:27,000 Technology will disrupt everything. 75 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:29,000 Economy will be different. 76 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:32,000 So can you predict the same pattern that will happen? 77 00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:35,000 Whatever happened the past 500 years will continue. 78 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:45,000 I think I think we can understand through not only seeing the patterns, but I think we k... 79 00:08:45,000 --> 00:08:50,000 And then again, what we don't know is much greater than what we do know. 80 00:08:50,000 --> 00:09:01,000 But I do think like if we were looking at today, we would say, of course, the financ... 81 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:02,000 Income statement balance sheet. 82 00:09:02,000 --> 00:09:03,000 How are you doing? 83 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:05,000 Productivity that matters. 84 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:16,000 We do know that how we are with each other, whether we're working well together and... 85 00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:17,000 we know those things matter. 86 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:20,000 And you can measure those and you can see those. 87 00:09:20,000 --> 00:09:23,000 We do know what the external conflicts are like. 88 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:24,000 We see it every day. 89 00:09:24,000 --> 00:09:26,000 You can measure it in numbers and so on. 90 00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:28,000 Those things are timeless and universal. 91 00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:31,000 We do know that acts of nature will continue. 92 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:39,000 And we do know, I think, that the greatest force of evolution through human... 93 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:47,000 So we are at the brink of a new world in which the technologies are going to radica... 94 00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:49,000 But we don't know how. 95 00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:54,000 So when I look at all those things, I think we know what I just described. 96 00:09:55,000 --> 00:10:06,000 And then what we don't know is how we're going to think in the future, how our mind... 97 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:14,000 which we're going to see radical changes over the next five years, over the next five... 98 00:10:14,000 --> 00:10:15,000 Five years. 99 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:16,000 Five years. 100 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:17,000 We're going to see it. 101 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:29,000 Then if you take five years and you go to ten, the world is going to change in all o... 102 00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:31,000 I think we know those things. 103 00:10:31,000 --> 00:10:33,000 Exactly how that's going to play out. 104 00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:35,000 No, no, no, I can't tell you. 105 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:37,000 Let me talk about today. 106 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:41,000 You've been talking about the United States, China. 107 00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:44,000 Who is winning the race? 108 00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:48,000 Well, there are a lot of races going on. 109 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:50,000 I'll call them wars. 110 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:54,000 There's a trade war, a technology war. 111 00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:57,000 There's a geopolitical influence war. 112 00:10:57,000 --> 00:11:00,000 There's an economic and capital war. 113 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:02,000 And there's a military war. 114 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:07,000 We are in the first four of those wars and we're at the brink of a military war. 115 00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:10,000 Brink doesn't mean that we're going to go over the brink. 116 00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:14,000 Everybody, you know, hopefully we don't go over the brink. 117 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:23,000 But if we're taking those types of wars and it depends on how long you want me to answ... 118 00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:24,000 But the charts that were shown. 119 00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:26,000 Don't worry about the chart. 120 00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:27,000 I run the chart. 121 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:31,000 Trade war. 122 00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:33,000 China's winning the trade war. 123 00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:46,000 If you just take the numbers, the percentage of world trade and dominance, the... 124 00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:51,000 It just had to express what it wanted and other countries would respond and so on. 125 00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:57,000 Now you go from country to country and the constant question I get is China or the... 126 00:11:57,000 --> 00:12:00,000 And the answer to that question typically comes back. 127 00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:03,000 If it's economic, it's China. 128 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:10,000 If it's military, the question is whether the United States will be there when we need t... 129 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:12,000 That's a most common answer across other places. 130 00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:14,000 So there's a combination. 131 00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:17,000 So it's it's a heck of a competition. 132 00:12:17,000 --> 00:12:19,000 The technology war. 133 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:22,000 Very interesting in many ways. 134 00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:26,000 They're going to be amazing technologies developed by both places. 135 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:32,000 And there's so you say in this way, the United States is winning in that way and... 136 00:12:32,000 --> 00:12:34,000 And there's going to be those competitions. 137 00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:43,000 The real winners, by the way, I think, are those who can tap into both and the unalig... 138 00:12:43,000 --> 00:12:53,000 If you take the capital war and the economic war, it's again more China than the United... 139 00:12:53,000 --> 00:13:02,000 And also, we're seeing a change in now the denomination of currencies, the trade and... 140 00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:05,000 We're beginning, which we didn't have before. 141 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:10,000 We're beginning the internationalization of the Remembe as part of a process. 142 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:16,000 Still, it's but the United States is dominant currently today in in that area. 143 00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:22,000 Then in terms of military war, that that becomes an interesting question. 144 00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:25,000 It's a hell of a competition. 145 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:26,000 Yes. 146 00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:28,000 Let me go to the United States. 147 00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:29,000 I'm going to ask the same thing. 148 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:30,000 Same question about China. 149 00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:32,000 Is the threat. 150 00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:37,000 For your state, external or an internal threat? 151 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:43,000 The far greater threat is an internal threat because basically. 152 00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:45,000 Be strong. 153 00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:53,000 If you're strong and you're healthy, then you're going to be domestically and... 154 00:13:54,000 --> 00:14:07,000 And so what we have is a deterioration of infrastructure, education, political... 155 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:12,000 You know, you could see the changes in the cities, New York, Chicago and places like... 156 00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:14,000 Opiate issues. 157 00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:16,000 A lot of those problems. 158 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:18,000 How people are with each other. 159 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:19,000 Is undermining the health. 160 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:21,000 The United States. 161 00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:22,000 I was very lucky. 162 00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:24,000 I was born in 1949. 163 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:27,000 Four years after the new world order began. 164 00:14:27,000 --> 00:14:33,000 And just the idea of that there was I was raised by two parents who cared for me. 165 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:40,000 I had public school education and I came out to a country that was very, very poor. 166 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:41,000 And that it has changed. 167 00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:43,000 And that is a factor. 168 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:46,000 So it's most importantly how we all work together. 169 00:14:46,000 --> 00:14:49,000 And I think that's the most important thing. 170 00:14:49,000 --> 00:14:52,000 And I think that's the most important thing. 171 00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:55,000 And I think that's the most important thing. 172 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:58,000 And I think that's the most important thing. 173 00:14:58,000 --> 00:15:01,000 And I think that's the most important thing. 174 00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:04,000 And I think that's the most important thing. 175 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:07,000 And I think that's the most important thing. 176 00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:10,000 And I think that's the most important thing. 177 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:13,000 And I think that's the most important thing. 178 00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:16,000 And I think that's the most important thing. 179 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:19,000 And I think that's the most important thing. 180 00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:22,000 And I think that's the most important thing. 181 00:15:22,000 --> 00:15:25,000 And I think that's the most important thing. 182 00:15:25,000 --> 00:15:28,000 And I think that's the most important thing. 183 00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:31,000 And I think that's the most important thing. 184 00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:34,000 And I think that's the most important thing. 185 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:37,000 Is China in a better shape for the same question? 186 00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:40,000 Very similar questions. 187 00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:42,000 Very similar questions. 188 00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:45,000 You have two greatly different approaches to the world. 189 00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:48,000 You have two greatly different approaches to the world. 190 00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:55,000 So now, one great man, Wang Qishan is the vice president of China, 191 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:58,000 So now, one great man, Wang Qishan is the vice president of China, 192 00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:01,000 a very objective man, described it essentially, 193 00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:05,000 that the United States is a country of individuals and individualism. 194 00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:08,000 that the United States is a country of individuals and individualism. 195 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:10,000 You had Elon Musk on before and so on. 196 00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:13,000 The individual, the power of the individual. 197 00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:16,000 And it's therefore bottom up. 198 00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:19,000 And then China is top down. 199 00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:20,000 And then China is top down. 200 00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:23,000 In other words, it's, and it's Confucian. 201 00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:26,000 And how each individual should relate to each other. 202 00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:29,000 And then that gets manifest in how the governance system 203 00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:32,000 And then that gets manifest in how the governance system 204 00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:35,000 You know, how the Communist Party works, 205 00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:38,000 how the whole governance system, how the media works, 206 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:40,000 how information is controlled. 207 00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:42,000 You know, you have a different place. 208 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:45,000 You have one place that's more anarchistic 209 00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:49,000 and, you know, creative and highly disorderly. 210 00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:50,000 And so on. 211 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:53,000 The other place which they're trying to achieve the balance better, 212 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:55,000 but it's really more top down. 213 00:16:55,000 --> 00:16:58,000 So those are two different approaches. 214 00:16:58,000 --> 00:17:01,000 And of course, we all around here, we go to different variations. 215 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:03,000 Every place has a different variation. 216 00:17:03,000 --> 00:17:07,000 So it's, you know, how that works out. 217 00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:09,000 We'll see. 218 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:11,000 Where is India in your book? 219 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:15,000 I mean, you talk China, United States, and there is a huge country 220 00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:17,000 with tremendous wealth. 221 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:18,000 Where is India? 222 00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:20,000 India is the country, 223 00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:24,000 from all of the statistics using 10-year growth rates 224 00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:26,000 and also just what's apparent, 225 00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:29,000 India will have probably the greatest growth rate, 226 00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:31,000 the fastest growth rate economically, 227 00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:35,000 have the greatest transformation of any country. 228 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:38,000 And I would say, like, if I was going to paint the world, 229 00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:40,000 there is this great power conflict 230 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:44,000 and lots of things going on that are great and terrible 231 00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:46,000 in both China and the United States. 232 00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:52,000 And then there's the countries that are not in that, the neutral countries. 233 00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:55,000 So here we are in the UAE. 234 00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:59,000 And you think about what's going on here and in Saudi and so on. 235 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:04,000 Or you go to Singapore and you look at what's happening in the ASEAN countries, 236 00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:07,000 Indonesia, Vietnam, and so on, and you look at India. 237 00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:11,000 It's an advantage through all history and world wars. 238 00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:15,000 Those that have not been involved in the wars and stand aside from the wars 239 00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:18,000 actually prosper from whatever conflicts exist. 240 00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:21,000 So we're going to have different types of wars between those two states, 241 00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:23,000 but India is going to be. 242 00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:29,000 Now, the dynamic of it is very interesting because it's not really open. 243 00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:32,000 You know, it's dominated by a few families. 244 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:35,000 It's not an easy place to get into. 245 00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:42,000 And, you know, capital markets haven't developed to the extent that they should... 246 00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:43,000 They will develop, probably. 247 00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:46,000 So there's a great, great deal of potential. 248 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:51,000 But actually, is there going to be that kind of opening up 249 00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:55,000 that is going to create that kind of vibrancy for us all? 250 00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:57,000 India will do great, I think. 251 00:18:57,000 --> 00:19:01,000 And then the question is, what does that mean for the rest of us? 252 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:02,000 Europe? 253 00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:08,000 Europe is, you know, a wonderful place to go enjoy life. 254 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:11,000 You know, it is beautiful. 255 00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:17,000 It's a beautiful, it's a, and then on the other hand, you know, 256 00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:26,000 it's a collection of countries which are by most measures economically, 257 00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:31,000 militarily, politically, trade-wise, and so on, not competitive. 258 00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:34,000 It's old in terms, it doesn't have the vibrancy. 259 00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:40,000 If you were to think about what is necessary in terms of the technologies, let's say, 260 00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:45,000 only two areas now in the world, the United States and China, 261 00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:48,000 in terms of going to really the scale of the great technologies 262 00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:51,000 that we're talking about, having a revolutionary thing. 263 00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:59,000 So it's a declining, it's not a powerful place. 264 00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:01,000 Financially, it's got problems. 265 00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:03,000 Militarily, it's limited. 266 00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:05,000 It's highly fragmented. 267 00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:08,000 And it's a beautiful place to go visit. 268 00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:09,000 Thank you. 269 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:12,000 We do, we do visit every summer there. 270 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:20,000 Ray, I mean, let's move from the world to you. 271 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:22,000 What's your mission in life? 272 00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:27,000 I'm 73 years old, and I think there's a life arc. 273 00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:33,000 I'm at the stage in my life arc where I'm transitioning to my last stage in life. 274 00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:36,000 I think life has three stages, basically. 275 00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:39,000 First stage, you're dependent on others, you're learning. 276 00:20:39,000 --> 00:20:43,000 Second stage, you're on your own, you're independent. 277 00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:47,000 Others become dependent on you, and you're trying to be successful. 278 00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:52,000 And then you go into the stage that I'm going into, which I'm into, 279 00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:53,000 in which you transition. 280 00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:57,000 And the beauty is to see other people successful without you, 281 00:20:57,000 --> 00:21:02,000 and just to pass along those things that might be helpful for others. 282 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:04,000 So that's the stage in life that I am. 283 00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:05,000 I'm going to do this. 284 00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:08,000 I have one more book to write, principles. 285 00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:13,000 I put their principles meaning things like recipes, 286 00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:16,000 how to do this and that that I've learned, and I want to pass those along. 287 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:19,000 And by the way, I encourage everybody to do that. 288 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:23,000 I put out a journal to help everybody write their own principles, 289 00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:27,000 because it's been an amazing experience for me to do that. 290 00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:28,000 It's helped me. 291 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:32,000 I convert the principles into algorithms that help me make decisions, 292 00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:34,000 and everybody can do that. 293 00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:39,000 But anyway, I'm at that stage in my life where that's what I want to do, 294 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:40,000 pass that along. 295 00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:42,000 I'll do that probably until the next book comes out, 296 00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:47,000 which would be Economic and Investment Principles, and then I'll be done. 297 00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:54,000 If we have 150 government with us in the World Government Summit, 298 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:57,000 what's your advice to government? 299 00:21:57,000 --> 00:22:04,000 I mean, if you have a perfect model, how this model should look like? 300 00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:12,000 I think the key question is whether man, whether internally or externally, 301 00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:22,000 has the capacity to rise above oneself, to look at what is the collective good, 302 00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:29,000 because there are win-win relationships and there are lose-lose relationships. 303 00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:37,000 And so in history, that desire, I am going to fight to keep my money 304 00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:43,000 or whatever it is, that produces outcomes that are disastrous. 305 00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:50,000 And so can the evolution of that take place? 306 00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:55,000 I wouldn't be optimistic about that, but it is the question of how we deal 307 00:22:55,000 --> 00:23:00,000 with each other is a fundamental question, and who knows? 308 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:04,000 So everybody's dealing with the issues I just mentioned, the financial issue, 309 00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:09,000 the internal conflict issue, the external conflict issue. 310 00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:11,000 I would say that when I look at countries and I say, 311 00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:17,000 where do I want to invest or where do I even want to be, 312 00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:22,000 there are those three things I look at. 313 00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:26,000 Is a good financial, is a place to have financial resources to do things well? 314 00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:31,000 Is it going to be internal conflict or external conflict? 315 00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:33,000 An external conflict. 316 00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:36,000 And then the technology and those types of things. 317 00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:40,000 So I would say that the measures are all there. 318 00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:44,000 In the book, I have 18 measures that are measured statistically. 319 00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:46,000 They're a health index. 320 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:51,000 You can look at that and that index is like if you go into a doctor's office 321 00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:58,000 and you take all the checking your vitals, those indexes, those indices, 322 00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,000 those measures are there. 323 00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:05,000 And if you make those good, you will have a greater longevity and a greater 324 00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:07,000 prosperity. 325 00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:12,000 So when I think about that, I think they're clear, what's health, 326 00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:18,000 and then also a paramount importance is can we rise above that with existing 327 00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:22,000 self-discipline and discipline with how we're dealing with others, 328 00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:24,000 that will be of paramount importance. 329 00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:25,000 Thank you. 330 00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:26,000 Thank you. 331 00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:27,000 We are running out of time. 332 00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:33,000 I would like just to capture the opportunity and ask you just a quick 333 00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:37,000 answer, if you can. 334 00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:38,000 You meditate. 335 00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:39,000 I'm sorry? 336 00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:40,000 You meditate. 337 00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:41,000 Yes. 338 00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:43,000 Why and what do you do? 339 00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:51,000 Oh, I'd say transcendental meditation I've done since 1969, however long that was. 340 00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:56,000 And it is more than anything else that it's been the most fabulous thing. 341 00:24:56,000 --> 00:25:00,000 That and writing down principles and converting them to algorithms are the main 342 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:01,000 thing. 343 00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:02,000 Okay. 344 00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:07,000 It's meditation, the one I do, is a mantra. 345 00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:10,000 So it's a word that has no particular meaning. 346 00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:13,000 A good example of that might be ohm. 347 00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:14,000 It's a sound. 348 00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:19,000 And you sit there quietly and repeat that in your mind. 349 00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:25,000 And when you do that, your conscious thoughts go away and you're in this ohm 350 00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:29,000 because when you're saying ohm to yourself, you can't have those thoughts. 351 00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:31,000 And then that disappears. 352 00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:35,000 And when that disappears, you go into a subconscious state. 353 00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:36,000 You're not conscious. 354 00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:37,000 You're not conscious. 355 00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:38,000 You're not unconscious. 356 00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:44,000 And from that subconscious state comes all sorts of creativity. 357 00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:52,000 And also we're largely driven by our subconscious more than our conscious. 358 00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:56,000 All the subconscious things that are going on and create the motivations. 359 00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:59,000 And so it helps to align those two things. 360 00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:01,000 And it gives a peace. 361 00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:04,000 Twenty minutes of meditation is like three hours of sleep. 362 00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:07,000 And it gives one an equanimity. 363 00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:12,000 It's like I think in like the ninja movies, you know, they're fighting all fast. 364 00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:17,000 And then but then they put it into slow motion because like the ninja for the ninja, 365 00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:21,000 it's just things coming at you and you deal with those things. 366 00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:24,000 So that's what meditation is like. 367 00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:29,000 What is your biggest success in life? 368 00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:35,000 I suppose evolving and I hope contributing to evolution. 369 00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:41,000 I think evolution is the only thing that's permanent and is what we do. 370 00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:44,000 And we're all on a ride. 371 00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:49,000 And so I think that I've been on the ride. 372 00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:51,000 And so it's not money. 373 00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:55,000 It's not power, influence or anything. 374 00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:57,000 It's it's sad. 375 00:26:57,000 --> 00:27:00,000 And then I think it's reflected in my family. 376 00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:01,000 Those kinds of things. 377 00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:03,000 Did you had failure? 378 00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:04,000 Oh, lots of failures. 379 00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:07,000 The professional I'm a professional. 380 00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:10,000 What was the biggest failure? 381 00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:19,000 Well, I mean, one I remember is in 1982, this changed my life. 382 00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:28,000 1982, I calculated that American banks had let more money to foreign countries than... 383 00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:30,000 I thought there'd be a big debt crisis. 384 00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:33,000 I spoke openly about that. 385 00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:40,000 And then Mexico defaulted in August 1982 and a number of countries started to default. 386 00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:46,000 And I thought that we were going to have a terrible economic collapse, terrible... 387 00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:48,000 And I couldn't have been more wrong. 388 00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:51,000 It was the exact bottom in the stock market. 389 00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:56,000 August 1982, when Mexico defaulted, I lost money for me. 390 00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:58,000 I lost money for my clients. 391 00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:05,000 I was so broke, I had to borrow four thousand dollars for my dad to help to pay for fami... 392 00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:09,000 And that was changed my life. 393 00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:13,000 It I realized it first. 394 00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:16,000 It gave me the humility that I needed to deal with my audacity. 395 00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:21,000 I knew that I didn't want to do this before this anymore, but I didn't want to lose th... 396 00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:26,000 So what I did is I learned, OK, how can I get the upside with that kind of risk? 397 00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:29,000 And I learned basically two things. 398 00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:36,000 First, to try to find the smartest people I could who disagreed with me to try to stre... 399 00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:41,000 And because this trap, the power of great triangulation is what I one of the things ... 400 00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:50,000 And then I learned how I could diversify my portfolios and my decision making that in ... 401 00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:57,000 but would reduce my risk by 80 percent because the power of diversification of... 402 00:28:57,000 --> 00:29:00,000 And that was that was the bottom. 403 00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,000 And then from there, that changed. 404 00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:15,000 And I really learned I have a principle, which is pain plus reflection equals... 405 00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:22,000 And if you can reflect calmly on those realities and think, how do I deal with... 406 00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:25,000 Well, that's and so on. 407 00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:29,000 Yeah, I think mistakes are a good thing. 408 00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:32,000 You know, learning experiences. 409 00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:36,000 Otherwise, you have successes and you know, you don't change. 410 00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:40,000 If you'll give me three advice in life. 411 00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:42,000 Three advice in life. 412 00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:45,000 OK. 413 00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:48,000 First, know your nature. 414 00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:51,000 We each have a nature of those are the things that. 415 00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:57,000 Those are the things that are our pulls, what we tend to be inclined to do and so on. 416 00:29:57,000 --> 00:30:05,000 And I think life is a journey of knowing your nature and finding the path for your nature. 417 00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:11,000 And then accept the fact that it's going to be a ride and that through that, the ups a... 418 00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:13,000 That's your learning experience. 419 00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:14,000 That's your journey. 420 00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:18,000 And so I would say also be very related to that. 421 00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:28,000 Number two is realize that whatever you know is immaterial relative to what you don't... 422 00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:40,000 And so give yourself the power of great open mindedness and also the power to diversify... 423 00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:43,000 You know, given that. 424 00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:44,000 Let's see. Number three. 425 00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:49,000 What would number three be? 426 00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:50,000 I don't know. 427 00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:52,000 Realize that. 428 00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:57,000 Realize that success is having a life that you want to have. 429 00:30:57,000 --> 00:31:06,000 Don't look at the definition of success like money, like money has no intrinsic value. 430 00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:10,000 Money only will get you what it buys. 431 00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:14,000 So think about what you want in terms of truly those things. 432 00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:18,000 I think life is a matter of meaningful work and meaningful relationships. 433 00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:27,000 If you have meaningful work and meaningful relationships, most importantly, meaningfu... 434 00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:29,000 Those are the three that come to mind. 435 00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:34,000 Ray, thank you very much. 436 00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:37,000 It was very insightful for all of us. 437 00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:39,000 We started from the word. 438 00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:43,000 We ended up with you and I here in the stage. 439 00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:47,000 Mr. Dahlia will have a book signing outside. 440 00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:49,000 You can join us if you want. 441 00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:51,000 Once again, thank you very much. 442 00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:52,000 Thank you. 443 00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:53,000 Thank you.