1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:09,600 Now, time for the conversation, and I see a man who is hard to miss, who's already going to rise to his feet and offer us the first reaction. 2 00:00:10,620 --> 00:00:13,980 No, thank you. Do I need a microphone? Yes, you do. 3 00:00:14,080 --> 00:00:15,780 Yeah, you do. There we are. 4 00:00:16,680 --> 00:00:17,180 Thank you. 5 00:00:19,000 --> 00:00:29,860 Well, George, it's good to see you here again, though I have to say you are even less cheerful than I've seen you in some other years. 6 00:00:30,460 --> 00:00:39,940 Before I ask my question, I would like to just share my sense with the audience of why it's worth listening to you on this topic. 7 00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:49,360 You've been right about Russia or Putin and right about Ukraine longer than just about anybody else. 8 00:00:49,360 --> 00:01:05,000 The Open Society Foundation has played a key role in the development in Ukraine of a civil society, of the formation of a Ukrainian state, of a sense of national consciousness. 9 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:17,480 I don't believe that one can think of many acts of philanthropy, sustained acts of philanthropy anywhere in the history of the world that have had this kind of impact. 10 00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:23,120 At the same time, you saw very early the danger of Vladimir Putin's Russia. 11 00:01:23,820 --> 00:01:33,740 I remember back in 2008 when Putin first violated international norms as opposed to domestic ones by attacking Georgia. 12 00:01:33,740 --> 00:01:39,880 And someone there said, well, shouldn't we be trying to get back to normal and calm down the crisis? 13 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:44,940 Your response was, that sounds a little Chamberlain-esque. 14 00:01:44,940 --> 00:01:58,720 And I think you have seen the pattern over the years of a failure to respond to Putin's accelerating aggressions and the state to which they brought us. 15 00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:03,080 And your sense of the stakes, I think, in this war, absolutely right. 16 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:17,640 The question that I would like to ask is, given all this, no one knows the situation in Ukraine, I think, as deeply as you, except for the Ukrainians. 17 00:02:17,640 --> 00:02:28,900 But what's your perspective as a friendly and sympathetic outsider on the strengths and the weaknesses that Ukraine may bring to this historic confrontation? 18 00:02:28,900 --> 00:02:55,940 Well, first of all, Ukraine already showed in 2015 that it can fight for freedom. 19 00:02:55,940 --> 00:03:18,440 So, it's all the more shows that Putin is sort of caught up in his own edifics and doesn't actually pay attention to reality. 20 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:42,500 So, I think Ukraine today is rendering a tremendous service to Europe and to the Western world, to open society. 21 00:03:42,500 --> 00:04:02,300 and our survival, because they are fighting our fight, and they have a really good chance of winning. 22 00:04:02,300 --> 00:04:21,660 So, we are very happy to have them fight our fight, and we must give them all the support that they ask for. 23 00:04:21,660 --> 00:04:28,660 And, in fact, certainly the United States is doing that. 24 00:04:28,660 --> 00:04:43,660 So, it's a tragic role that they are playing, 25 00:04:43,660 --> 00:04:55,660 because of the tremendous pain and suffering and dying. 26 00:04:55,660 --> 00:05:07,660 And I think Zelensky is basically following the right policies by saying, 27 00:05:07,660 --> 00:05:17,660 I want to have living heroes. I prefer living heroes to dead heroes. 28 00:05:17,660 --> 00:05:26,660 So, we should be very grateful to what they are doing for us. 29 00:05:26,660 --> 00:05:32,660 If I may, just a word to add about the foundation, our foundation there, George's foundation. 30 00:05:32,660 --> 00:05:42,660 George has, over the last 30 years, spent almost a quarter of a billion dollars on democracy, human rights and economic reform in Ukraine. 31 00:05:42,660 --> 00:05:49,660 He and Alex and Tomiko have made dozens of visits to Kyiv over the years. 32 00:05:49,660 --> 00:05:54,660 And, you know, George has, we've been praising him for his great judgment. 33 00:05:54,660 --> 00:05:59,660 Occasionally, I think he's seen hope in Ukraine a little before it arrived. 34 00:05:59,660 --> 00:06:02,660 But he has been a persistent fan of Ukraine. 35 00:06:02,660 --> 00:06:12,660 And it is, I think, a fact that because we are so deeply involved, and indeed, you know, the first challenge for us was whether to evacuate our foundation, 36 00:06:12,660 --> 00:06:17,660 as we had had to do last year in both Afghanistan and Myanmar. 37 00:06:17,660 --> 00:06:22,660 And the first thing we found was almost nobody wanted to leave. 38 00:06:22,660 --> 00:06:24,660 In fact, nobody would leave. 39 00:06:24,660 --> 00:06:33,660 And so we moved some to Lviv, but they have continued to make grants at an accelerated rate during this crisis. 40 00:06:33,660 --> 00:06:36,660 And most of them are now back in Kyiv. 41 00:06:36,660 --> 00:06:45,660 And we launched a fund for Ukrainian democracy, declaring that, you know, while there was a huge amount of immediate humanitarian aid, 42 00:06:45,660 --> 00:06:53,660 Putin's real target in Ukraine was not some implausible NATO missile on his border. 43 00:06:53,660 --> 00:07:08,660 It was the flame of democracy and freedom and this cheeky, ironic president, who was, you know, so full of ironic digs at this gloomy regime next door in Russia, 44 00:07:08,660 --> 00:07:13,660 that it was democracy that threatened Putin. 45 00:07:13,660 --> 00:07:18,660 And so we've got this fund, which many other foundations have joined us now in supporting. 46 00:07:18,660 --> 00:07:33,660 And we are supporting not just the unmet bits of the refugee exodus, but the longer term investment in both human rights and documenting war crimes, but in democracy and a free media as well. 47 00:07:33,660 --> 00:07:42,660 And therefore the answer to us to the question, are we surprised by the strength of the Ukrainian resistance? 48 00:07:42,660 --> 00:07:48,660 Not at all, because we saw it in our own colleagues in the foundation. 49 00:07:48,660 --> 00:08:01,660 We have a foundation in Ukraine and it happens to be one of our best foundations. 50 00:08:01,660 --> 00:08:13,660 They refuse to leave and because they refuse to leave and they are a leading civil society. 51 00:08:13,660 --> 00:08:26,040 I also want to mention that there is one person who was very deeply involved in Ukraine, and that's Biden. 52 00:08:27,260 --> 00:08:33,900 In fact, I got to know him with regard to Ukraine. 53 00:08:33,900 --> 00:08:44,980 He had a lot more patience than I had in trying to convert Poroshenko into a democratic leader. 54 00:08:45,760 --> 00:09:02,560 I fed up with him and I told him so, but actually Biden kept on trying to convert Poroshenko into a democrat. 55 00:09:03,900 --> 00:09:06,260 Thank you, George. Mark Leonard. 56 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:24,300 Hi, George. It's absolutely wonderful seeing you up there telling us all what's happening in the world. 57 00:09:24,300 --> 00:09:43,940 I first came to Davos, I think, about 15 years ago and learned that the Davos experience was not complete without you coming and explaining to the crowd why the Davos consensus was so dangerous, so self-defeating and so wrong. 58 00:09:43,940 --> 00:09:58,320 And over the years, this dinner and your speech has taken on an almost oracular quality where you've warned about the financial crises that people were going to live through, the dangers to our democracy. 59 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:08,840 And you've questioned a lot of the ideas about globalization, which were the conventional wisdom here. 60 00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:17,240 And I feel, having gone around a lot of events over the last couple of days, that Davos is maybe catching up with you. 61 00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:27,400 I've seen many more discussions now about the dangers of unregulated free markets than about the need for unbridled competition. 62 00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:36,340 There have been lots of discussions about the dark side of a lot of the elements of the Davos consensus. 63 00:10:36,340 --> 00:10:47,580 And the importance of politics and geopolitics and values runs through almost all the different events there, which would have been unthinkable a few years ago. 64 00:10:47,580 --> 00:11:02,760 One of the questions which I wanted to ask you about was about the transatlantic relationship, both the US and Europe. 65 00:11:02,760 --> 00:11:16,740 I think that what we've been living through in the last few months has been an absolutely existential awakening for the West. 66 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:23,100 And we've seen it come back from its brain dead in ways which were unthinkable a while ago. 67 00:11:23,500 --> 00:11:28,320 But at the same time, it feels like an incredibly fragile position that we're in at the moment. 68 00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:37,960 I certainly thank whoever may be responsible for it every day, that Biden is in the White House rather than Donald Trump. 69 00:11:39,240 --> 00:11:51,560 And I feel that we're on borrowed time to try and prepare Europe for a world where you might have a less committed, a less reliable partner in the White House. 70 00:11:51,560 --> 00:12:04,860 And also, you can see, as we settle in for what could be a very long war of attrition, how many dangerous fractures we could start to emerge. 71 00:12:04,860 --> 00:12:14,600 You talked at the end about the need to end this war as quickly as possible and how important it was that it ends in victory for Ukraine. 72 00:12:15,060 --> 00:12:23,480 I think there could be very difficult conversations within the West about what victory means, about the conflicts between justice and peace. 73 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:32,620 I think the refugee crisis is going to put enormous pressure on our societies. 74 00:12:33,560 --> 00:12:40,920 And even though we haven't gone through the sort of abject failure that we went through in 2015, which he was so eloquent about, 75 00:12:41,040 --> 00:12:46,000 I think that we are nowhere near... Sorry, that's my phone. 76 00:12:49,140 --> 00:12:50,220 Hopefully they'll go away. 77 00:12:50,220 --> 00:13:06,000 Anyway, I think that on the refugee crisis, I think that we are nowhere near actually having got a common European approach to that. 78 00:13:06,300 --> 00:13:16,500 I think that when it comes to the cost of living and the asymmetric impact of the energy crisis across the EU, 79 00:13:16,580 --> 00:13:18,560 that's going to create a lot of tensions as well. 80 00:13:18,560 --> 00:13:34,540 You have been ahead of the curve about how to make politics prepare our societies to hang together when we face enormous problems. 81 00:13:34,660 --> 00:13:39,320 And on the euro crisis, you were miles ahead of where most of the governments were. 82 00:13:39,620 --> 00:13:44,660 I think you're right that in the end, Olaf Scholz and the Germans have always done the right thing. 83 00:13:44,660 --> 00:13:54,040 But I think that the European project and the unity of the West is going to be tested in ways that it hasn't been tested for a long time in the months ahead. 84 00:13:54,080 --> 00:14:02,660 And I was wondering what you think we can do now during this period of time before 2024 85 00:14:02,660 --> 00:14:14,620 to help Europe hang together and also to prepare for a world where, I hope it won't happen, but where Trump returns to the White House. 86 00:14:14,620 --> 00:14:34,260 I have actually been very impressed by unity and decisiveness and the willingness to use this occasion 87 00:14:34,260 --> 00:14:48,340 to continue to develop greater, greater, more of a federation. 88 00:14:48,340 --> 00:15:06,340 So this idea of the partial federation superseding confederation is a very important step forward. 89 00:15:06,340 --> 00:15:34,340 And I think what is more actually discussed and I didn't discuss in my paper that Europe is an incomplete project. 90 00:15:34,340 --> 00:15:58,340 And it has a central bank, but it doesn't have a treasury and the needs, financial needs that Europe has to face are so enormous 91 00:15:58,340 --> 00:16:17,340 enormous that you need to take that additional step and also benefit from the positive developments in Europe 92 00:16:17,340 --> 00:16:36,340 and allow the European Union to raise its own source of income so that it can borrow in the commercial markets. 93 00:16:36,340 --> 00:16:53,340 That is a missing step and there isn't yet a really determined policy on this. 94 00:16:53,340 --> 00:17:18,340 So to meet the tremendous needs, financial needs, Europe must use its improved credibility to actually borrow a market in its own name. 95 00:17:18,340 --> 00:17:23,340 Because right now it can only borrow from its member states. 96 00:17:23,340 --> 00:17:30,340 It hasn't yet the ability to borrow from the market. 97 00:17:30,340 --> 00:17:35,340 And that needs to be repaired. 98 00:17:35,340 --> 00:17:37,340 Thank you, George. 99 00:17:37,340 --> 00:17:38,340 Jan. 100 00:17:38,340 --> 00:17:39,340 Yep. 101 00:17:39,340 --> 00:17:40,340 Yep. 102 00:17:40,340 --> 00:17:41,340 Yep. 103 00:17:41,340 --> 00:17:42,340 Sorry. 104 00:17:42,340 --> 00:17:43,340 Hello, sir. 105 00:17:43,340 --> 00:17:49,340 This is Klaus Hecking from Der Spiegel from Germany. 106 00:17:49,340 --> 00:17:54,340 Thank you very much for the invitation and especially for your speech. 107 00:17:54,340 --> 00:17:56,340 I've got two questions. 108 00:17:56,340 --> 00:18:06,340 The first question is, should the European Union start an oil embargo or end a gas embargo against Russia in your view? 109 00:18:06,340 --> 00:18:17,340 And the second question is, I guess you have heard about the reports in Der Spiegel and other magazines about human rights violations in China against Uyghurs executed by the Chinese police? 110 00:18:17,340 --> 00:18:22,340 How should Western politicians and corporations react to this? 111 00:18:22,340 --> 00:18:23,340 Thank you. 112 00:18:23,340 --> 00:18:41,340 Well, I think the violations in Xinjiang are generally recognized and there is unity about it. 113 00:18:41,340 --> 00:18:45,340 What was the first question? 114 00:18:45,340 --> 00:18:46,340 Should it be an oil embargo? 115 00:18:46,340 --> 00:19:11,320 Well, the oil embargo is a very interesting subject and I think that Putin has been very clever in sort of blackmailing your own 116 00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:16,320 Europe threatening to cut off the gas. 117 00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:41,300 But actually his case is much less strong than he pretends because last year he didn't release gas but put it into the 118 00:19:41,300 --> 00:19:48,300 into the Russian reserves. 119 00:19:48,300 --> 00:20:04,300 And by doing that he extorted enormous, he pushed up the price of gas enormously and basically made a lot of money. 120 00:20:04,300 --> 00:20:31,300 I think since the embargo was imposed, Russia has made a lot more money than was impounded by the very clever trick of the US to 121 00:20:31,300 --> 00:20:50,300 to seize the dollar assets of the European, of Russia. 122 00:20:50,300 --> 00:20:51,300 Russia. 123 00:20:51,300 --> 00:21:15,300 So, that is, that is, he has really, now, so he filled up the reservoirs that Russia has and they will be full in July. 124 00:21:15,300 --> 00:21:22,300 And if he doesn't release it somewhere, they will overflow. 125 00:21:22,300 --> 00:21:44,300 And because the equipment is so antiquated and badly preserved that if you, he will have to 126 00:21:44,300 --> 00:22:06,300 actually, if he doesn't release it to the market, he will have to start shutting down the oil fields in Siberia that are producing the gas. 127 00:22:06,300 --> 00:22:15,300 And because of this old equipment, and because of this old equipment, if you restart it, you lose at least half the output. 128 00:22:15,300 --> 00:22:30,300 And this is facing them, facing Putin, starting in July. 129 00:22:30,300 --> 00:22:33,300 So, he is actually in a crisis. 130 00:22:33,300 --> 00:22:40,300 And he has managed somehow to terrify Europe. 131 00:22:40,300 --> 00:22:45,300 And Europe is basically bluffing. 132 00:22:45,300 --> 00:22:52,300 He is in a, in a tight situation. 133 00:22:52,300 --> 00:22:56,300 He has to do something with that gas. 134 00:22:56,300 --> 00:23:06,300 And the only place that can absorb it, because the pipelines are in existence, is Europe. 135 00:23:06,300 --> 00:23:17,300 So, Europe has a much stronger position than it recognizes. 136 00:23:17,300 --> 00:23:32,300 And I have approached the authorities to point this out, but I haven't had a, this is a relatively recent development on my part. 137 00:23:32,300 --> 00:23:39,300 I mean, it is based on very good authority. 138 00:23:39,300 --> 00:24:01,300 And I have been, actually, I have sent it to, to Draghi, because he is the man who is most capable. 139 00:24:01,300 --> 00:24:11,300 And in this, in this, in championing this, the letter has been sent. 140 00:24:11,300 --> 00:24:13,300 I sent it yesterday. 141 00:24:13,300 --> 00:24:16,300 But I haven't got the reply. 142 00:24:16,300 --> 00:24:19,300 So, I'm glad to tell you about it. 143 00:24:19,300 --> 00:24:30,300 It's a very important development that Europe currently doesn't take advantage of. 144 00:24:30,300 --> 00:24:31,300 So, sir, just a quick question. 145 00:24:31,300 --> 00:24:40,300 Does it mean that you are in favor of both an oil embargo and, so, sir, excuse me, just a quick follow-up. 146 00:24:40,300 --> 00:24:49,300 So, does it mean that you are in favor of both an oil embargo against Russia and a gas embargo against Russia? 147 00:24:49,300 --> 00:24:58,300 Forget about the oil embargo because oil is fungible. 148 00:24:58,300 --> 00:25:08,300 And actually, Europe has developed some plans for a buyer's cartel. 149 00:25:08,300 --> 00:25:16,300 But I think that's the wrong, the wrong approach. 150 00:25:16,300 --> 00:25:33,300 So, if Europe doesn't buy it, the Chinese will be very happy to take it. 151 00:25:33,300 --> 00:25:36,300 So, this is the wrong thing. 152 00:25:36,300 --> 00:26:00,300 But using the gas, which can only be sold in Europe, because this is where the pipelines are built, is a vulnerability of Russia instead of a strength. 153 00:26:00,300 --> 00:26:04,300 I'd like to make this point very clear. 154 00:26:04,300 --> 00:26:18,300 And I know I'm saying something that I actually was hoping that Draghi would say, but it came up tonight. 155 00:26:18,300 --> 00:26:21,300 So, I'm talking about it. 156 00:26:21,300 --> 00:26:26,300 And I would like to make sure that what I'm saying is understood. 157 00:26:26,300 --> 00:26:34,300 So, if it's not clear, please let me know and try to make it clearer. 158 00:26:34,300 --> 00:26:41,300 Okay, I think we just need to move on, though, because we have a lot of people who want to ask questions. Ladies, here. Which of you is going to do it? 159 00:26:41,300 --> 00:26:56,300 Hello, Mr. Soros. My name is Gunilla von Heil. I'm a Swedish journalist working for Svenska Dagbladet. 160 00:26:56,300 --> 00:27:07,300 And I have a question concerning Sweden and Finland. They are in the process of joining NATO. This has angered Russia and Putin very much. 161 00:27:07,300 --> 00:27:31,300 I would like to have your view on how do you think President Putin will react as this process of membership is going forward? How far is he ready to go? And how do you think this added tension around the membership of Sweden and Finland in NATO will have on the global security situation? Thank you. 162 00:27:31,300 --> 00:28:00,300 Well, actually, Putin is in a weak position and he knows it. And he has recently said that Finland joining NATO by itself doesn't pose a threat. 163 00:28:00,300 --> 00:28:29,300 He has a problem for him. So, he has more or less encouraged it, but accepted it. I think there are some other issues with Sweden. 164 00:28:29,300 --> 00:28:53,300 In particular, in particular, because of their commitment on human rights and helping people in trouble. I'm sorry, I can't. I'm sure you know them better than I do. He did not say the same thing about Sweden. 165 00:28:53,300 --> 00:29:06,300 But I think it's enough. But I think it's enough that he has shown that Finland is OK. 166 00:29:06,300 --> 00:29:25,300 I think, look, it's fair to say that if you wanted two candidate countries to show that NATO was a defensive, not an aggressive alliance, you couldn't have two better candidates to make that case than Sweden and Finland in terms of, you know... 167 00:29:25,300 --> 00:29:35,300 Before the next session, I'd like to offer to send anybody who wants the letter I wrote to Draghi. 168 00:29:35,300 --> 00:29:42,300 Good. So, you get a scoop tonight in the back there and then... 169 00:29:42,300 --> 00:29:58,800 Hi, I'm Andrea Dudik from Bloomberg News. I have two short questions. You've mentioned Mario Draghi several times today. Is he, in your view, the leader that Europe should have? 170 00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:07,800 Or are you looking at other European leaders as ones who should lead? And second question I have about Hungary. 171 00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:19,800 Viktor Orban won yet another term in office. Are you disappointed by this result? And what kind of outlook do you see for Hungary going forward? 172 00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:34,800 Well, on Draghi, I certainly think that he's shown initiative, imagination and he has a tremendous reputation. 173 00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:51,800 And that's why I wrote to him. And that's why I wrote to him. Because if he embraces that idea, Europe will embrace it. But it doesn't mean that he's the only leader. 174 00:30:51,800 --> 00:31:12,800 Europe has a number of leaders. They are basically all stand for the same thing. They are pro-European. And they are in a very creative moment, 175 00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:35,800 proposing a step forward towards a partially federated Europe. It's a tremendous advance. As regards Putin, I have a rule against discussing him. 176 00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:54,800 Because he wants, he's desperate to turn the difference between us into a personal difference. And it is not a personal difference. 177 00:31:54,800 --> 00:32:22,800 The conflict is between the mafia state that he has established and the interests of the Hungarian people who are being exploited by the mafia state. 178 00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:26,800 It is a very clever construction. 179 00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:35,800 George, you said, you said Putin, you meant Orban. 180 00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:38,800 You said Putin, you meant Orban. 181 00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:39,800 Sorry, sorry. 182 00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:45,800 My remarks were on Orban, not Putin. 183 00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:54,800 So I think there was, you know, you were all being very polite. Just a minute, you don't make personal remarks? What was that about Putin tonight? 184 00:32:54,800 --> 00:33:09,800 I think it's important we've clarified that, that it was Orban. And I think if I may, we're going to stop it there. I know there are many who have sought my eye and I would have loved to have allowed all of you an opportunity to ask questions. 185 00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:31,800 But I think you've gotten a lot out of George tonight. He's promised to share the druggy letter. George, this was an extraordinary, I think, statement from somebody who's seen Europe through so many iterations, a warning that I hope won't be lost on anyone who's here tonight or those who read accounts of it or see the tapes of it afterwards. 186 00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:32,800 Thank you.